000 AXNT20 KNHC 081748 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 148 PM EDT Fri May 8 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W to 06N18W. The ITCZ continues from 06N18W to 04N25W to 02N39W to 01N50W. Scattered to numerous moderate with isolated to scattered strong convection is within 120 nm either side of the ITCZ between 18W-36W. Similar convection is seen from 03.5-06.5N between 10W-18W. Isolated moderate convection is near the ITCZ between 36W-44W. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface high pressure ridging extends from a 1021 mb high over northern Florida to the central Gulf of Mexico. Fair skies and dry weather prevail over much of the basin. A weak surface trough in the Bay of Campeche is producing isolated showers and tstorms from 19N-22N between 91W-94W. The latest ASCAT pass shows fresh to strong southerly winds across the northwestern Gulf. Moderate winds are over the southern and eastern Gulf. High pressure will retreat eastward today, enabling a cold front to move into the northern Gulf tonight. The front will move to the central Gulf Sat and gradually stall through Sun. An area of low pressure is expected to develop along the front over the SW Gulf on Sat, and track east-northeastward toward South Florida on Sun. Fresh to strong E winds will develop N of the front over the central Gulf late Sat into Sun. The low and front will bring numerous showers and scattered tstorms to most of the southern and eastern Gulf Sat through Sun. The front will then exit the SE Gulf early Mon. CARIBBEAN SEA... Mid- to upper-level anticyclonic flow covers the eastern two- thirds of the Caribbean. A stationary front extends across Cuba from 21N77W to 21N81W. Isolated showers and tstorms are between Jamaica and the eastern half of Cuba. The latest TPW imagery shows increased moisture over the NW Caribbean from the dissipating front and over the SW Caribbean from the east Pacific trough. Scattered moderate convection is seen over the Gulf of Honduras and coast of Belize. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen south of 11.5N between 80W- 82W, just N of western Panama. Isolated showers and tstorms are elsewhere south of 11.5N between 76W-85W. The latest ASCAT pass shows strong trades in the south-central Caribbean, south of 15N between 67W-75W. Fresh trades are elsewhere south of 18N between 63W-80W. High pressure N of the area will maintain fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean, and moderate to fresh winds over most of the remainder of the basin through Sat. The aerial extent of the trades will increase slightly Sat into Sun. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 32N57W to 25N66W to the SE Bahamas near 22N73W, then continues as a stationary front to the coast of Cuba near 21N77W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm of the front, mainly north of 22N and east of 70W. The convection extends to 180 nm east of the front, north of 29N east of 57W. West of 70W, scattered showers and isolated tstorms are within 60 nm of the front. The latest ASCAT pass shows fresh winds on both sides of the front, except for locally strong along and within 30 nm east of the front, north of 26N and east of 63W. Gentle anticyclonic flow is seen north of the Bahamas, due to weak surface high pressure in the area. Farther east, a 1025 mb surface high near 32N39W extends a surface ridge to 20N60W. A cold front extends from 32N20W to 27N25W, then continues as a surface trough to 24N29W to 23.5N34W. Isolated showers are near the front and trough. The cold front from 26N65W to central Cuba will stall today. Another cold front is forecast to move off northern Florida Sat morning and move across the waters north of 29N through Sun. Weak low pressure is expected to track NE across south Florida into the Bahamas Sun through Mon. Numerous showers and tstorms will impact most of the waters between 70W-85W Sun into Mon. In the wake of the low, a cold front will move across the western Atlantic through Mon night, then reach from near 29N65W to 26N70W and stall to the central Cuba coast late Tue. $$ Hagen