000 AXNT20 KNHC 080530 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EDT Fri May 08 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0510 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea near 10N14W to 06N18W. The ITCZ continues from 06N18W to 05N20W, to 02N30W, 01N40W, to the Equator along 45W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 270 nm to the north of the ITCZ between 20W and 50W, and within 60 nm to the south of the ITCZ between 20W and 30W. GULF OF MEXICO... Upper level NW wind flow moves from Texas into the Gulf of Mexico, becoming westerly wind flow from 90W eastward. Upper level SW wind flow moves from Mexico and the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, into the Gulf of Mexico, becoming westerly wind flow from 90W eastward. A stationary front passes through the NW corner of Cuba, to 23N90W in the south central Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate from 24N southward from 90W westward. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico, to the north of the stationary front. High pressure in the forecast waters will retreat eastward Friday. This will enable a cold front, forecast to move into the northern Gulf of Mexico on Friday night. The front will shift across the Gulf waters. It is possible that an area of low pressure may develop along the front in the SW Gulf on Saturday, and track ENE toward South Florida on Sunday. CARIBBEAN SEA... The GFS model for 250 mb, and water vapor imagery, show that an upper level ridge extends from NE Venezuela, into the central Caribbean Sea, beyond Nicaragua. Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire Caribbean Sea. Broad surface low pressure is along a NW-to-SE line, from Mexico into the northern parts of Central America. Precipitation: numerous strong in the Gulf of Honduras from 17N southward to the coast from 87W westward to the coast, and in southern sections of Honduras. Warming cloud top temperatures, and weakening but possibly remnant precipitation covers the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea from 83W westward. The easternmost part of a surface trough passes through the eastern Pacific Ocean, into the northernmost sections and the coastal plains of Colombia. Warming cloud top temperatures, and weakening but possibly remnant precipitation covers the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea, S of 16N from 70W westward. High pressure in the central Atlantic Ocean will maintain fresh to strong trade winds in the south central Caribbean Sea, and moderate to fresh winds in most of the remainder of the basin through Saturday. The aerial extent of the trade winds will increase from Saturday into Sunday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A western Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 32N63W about 90 nm to the east of Bermuda, to 27N70W, to the coast of Cuba near 22N81W. The front continues into the south central Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 150 nm to 330 nm to the SSE of the cold front from 25N northward. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere, within 240 nm to the SSE of the cold front, from SE Cuba to 25N. The 24-hour rainfall total, in inches, for the period ending at 08/0000 UTC, for Bermuda, is 0.28. An eastern Atlantic Ocean surface trough is along 32N23W 28N25W 25N28W. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 23N northward between 19W and 35W. The current western Atlantic Ocean cold front will stall on Friday in the SE waters. A second cold front is forecast to move off northern Florida on Saturday morning. The second cold front will extend from 31N65W to the NW Bahamas by Saturday night. Strong winds in the northern waters are possible on Sunday night and Monday, as developing low pressure along the frontal boundary moves across south Florida into the Bahamas. $$ mt