000 AXNT20 KNHC 061711 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 PM EDT Wed May 6 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea Bissau near 12N16W to 07N18W. The ITCZ continues from there to 03N35W to the coast of Brazil near 03N51W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring within 60 nm of the ITCZ west of 35W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is located north of 04N east of 15W. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 1500 UTC, a cold front extends from the Big Bend region of Florida near 29N83W to south of the Mexico-U.S. border near 24N98W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring south of 24N west of 93W ahead of the frontal boundary. N to NE winds north of the front are moderate to strong while seas remain less than 8 ft, as observed by ships and buoys this morning. Elsewhere throughout the Gulf, winds are fresh breeze or weaker. While it is difficult to discern due to high overcast, the SW Gulf likely continues to have moderate to dense smoke due to agricultural fires from Mexico. The cold front will reach from near Tampa Bay to NE Mexico later today, from SW Florida to Tampico, Mexico tonight, then move south of the basin on Thu while weakening. Fresh to strong northerly winds are expected in the wake of the front, but mainly over the eastern half of the Gulf waters. Fresh to strong southerly winds are expected in the western Gulf on Fri as a low pressure system develops over the southern U.S. Smoke from agricultural fires in southern Mexico could cause haze and reduced visibilities over the SW Gulf the next few days. CARIBBEAN SEA... A moderate north-south pressure gradient is established across the Caribbean this morning. This is producing generally fresh to moderate E trades across the Caribbean except for strong NE trades just north of Colombia, as observed by scatterometer. Peak seas are up to 8 ft in the SW Caribbean. Widely scattered showers are occurring just south of eastern Cuba and Hispaniola. High pressure in the central Atlantic will maintain fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean, and moderate to fresh winds over most of the remainder of the basin through Fri. Smoke from agricultural fires in northern Central America may cause haze and reduced visibilities over the Gulf of Honduras and near the Yucatan Peninsula. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The Bermuda-Azores high is displaced southward today with a broad east-west ridge and two 1021 mb highs at 23N53W and 23N39W split by a trough. There is a moderate pressure gradient between the Bermuda-Azores high and the ITCZ, promoting generally fresh to moderate NE to E trades, as observed by scatterometer passes this morning. Peak seas remain below 8 ft. North of the high, there is a cold front extending from 32N32W to 28W40W with scattered showers occurring within 60 nm of the front. A second cold front extends from 32N51W to 30N57W, where it transitions to a stationary front to 32N63W. No significant shower activity is associated with this second cold front. A third cold front will enter the NW waters later today, extend from 31N70W to the central Bahamas on Thu, then move across the SE waters on Fri. Fresh to strong winds are expected on either side of the front. Southerly flow will increase over the NW portion of the area on Fri night ahead of another cold front forecast to move off northern Florida Sat morning and extend from 31N65W to the NW Bahamas by Sat night. $$ CWL