561 
AXNT20 KNHC 061010
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Wed May 6 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra 
Leone near 08N13W, to 07N16W. The ITCZ continues from 07N16W to 
01N38W, to 01N50W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to 
isolated strong is within 60 nm on either side of the monsoon 
trough and ITCZ from 30W eastward. Isolated moderate to locally 
strong is elsewhere from 08N southward from 24W westward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level zonal wind flow covers the area from 25N northward. 
Upper level SW wind flow covers the rest of the Gulf of Mexico. 
A frontal boundary is along the U.S.A. Gulf coast, from southern 
Mississippi to southern Texas. A surface ridge is along 26N/27N 
from south Florida into the west central Gulf of Mexico. 
Precipitation: Scattered moderate to locally strong is along the 
frontal boundary. Scattered moderate rain showers are within 150 
nm of the Texas and Louisiana coasts, and the western half of 
coastal Louisiana. Numerous moderate scattered strong is in 
the Louisiana waters.

The current cold front moving into the NW Gulf will reach from 
northern Florida to southern Texas later today, from central 
Florida to northern Mexico tonight, then move south of the basin 
on Thu. Fresh to strong northerly winds are expected in the NE 
Gulf late tonight. Fresh to strong southerly winds are expected 
in the western Gulf on Fri as a low pressure system develops 
over the southern U.S.A. Smoke from agricultural fires in 
southern Mexico could cause haze and reduced visibilities over 
the SW Gulf the next few days. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough extends from the Yucatan Channel, to the 
coastal waters of Honduras and Nicaragua, into the SW Caribbean 
Sea near the western half of Panama. Precipitation: widely 
scattered moderate to isolated strong from 12N to 17N between 
77W and 82W, from 240 nm to 300 nm to the SSW of Jamaica. Upper 
level anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the Caribbean 
Sea.

High pressure in the central Atlantic will maintain fresh to 
strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean, and moderate 
to fresh winds most of over the remainder of the basin through 
Fri. Smoke from agricultural fires in northern Central America 
may cause haze and reduced visibilities over the Gulf of 
Honduras and near the Yucatan Peninsula.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N55W to 31N62W. Precipitation: 
rainshowers are possible from 30N northward between 49W and 68W.
The 24-hour rainfall total, in inches, ending at 06/0000 UTC, 
for Bermuda, was 0.08.

A surface trough is along 28N61W to 22N66W. Precipitation: 
rainshowers are possible within 60 nm to 120 nm on either side 
of the trough.

A cold front passes through 32N34W, to 31N36W. A surface trough 
continues southwestward, from 29N40W to 23N48W. Precipitation: 
isolated moderate is within 300 nm to the east and southeast of 
the cold front from 28N northward, and within 180 nm to the east 
and southeast of the surface trough from 23N to 29N.

A cold front will enter the NW waters later today, extend from 
31N70W to the central Bahamas on Thu, then move across the SE 
waters on Fri. Fresh to strong winds are expected on either side 
of the front. Southerly flow will increase over the NW portion 
of the area on Fri night ahead of another cold front forecast to 
move off northern Florida Sat morning and extend from 31N65W to 
the NW Bahamas by Sat night. 

$$
mt/dbm