000
AXNT20 KNHC 060705
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Wed May 06 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra 
Leone near 08N13W, to 07N15W. The ITCZ continues from 07N15W to 
06N20W, to 03N30W, 01N40W, 01N50W. Precipitation: widely 
scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 60 nm on either 
side of the monsoon trough and ITCZ from 24W eastward. Isolated 
moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 08N southward from 
24W westward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level zonal wind flow covers the area from 25N northward. 
Upper level SW wind flow covers the rest of the Gulf of Mexico. 
A frontal boundary is in the U.S.A. Gulf coastal plains, from SW 
Louisiana to the Deep South of Texas. A surface ridge is along 
26N/27N from south Florida into the west central Gulf of Mexico. 
Precipitation: Numerous moderate to strong is inland from 24N in 
northern Mexico to 28N in south Texas between the coast and 
101W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are within 
90 nm of the upper Texas coast, and the western half of coastal 
Louisiana. Scattered moderate to isolated strong is in SE 
Louisiana waters.

The current Texas coastal plains cold front will extend from 
northern Florida to southern Texas on Wednesday. The front will 
move south of the basin on Thursday. Fresh to strong northerly 
winds are expected in the NE Gulf of Mexico late on Wednesday 
and early on Thursday. Fresh to strong southerly winds are 
expected in the western Gulf of Mexico on Friday, as a low 
pressure system develops in the southern U.S.A.  Smoke, from 
agricultural fires in southern Mexico, may cause haze and 
reduced visibilities in the SW Gulf of Mexico during the next 
few days. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough extends from the Yucatan Channel, to the 
coastal waters of Honduras and Nicaragua, into the SW corner of 
the Caribbean Sea near the western half of Panama. 
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 
12N to 17N between 77W and 82W, from 240 nm to 300 nm to the SSW 
of Jamaica. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest 
of the Caribbean Sea.

High pressure in the central Atlantic Ocean will maintain fresh 
to strong trade winds in the south central Caribbean Sea, and 
moderate to fresh winds in the remainder of the basin, through 
Friday. Smoke, from agricultural fires in northern Central 
America, may cause haze and reduced visibilities in the Gulf of 
Honduras and near the Yucatan Peninsula.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N59W to 31N62W. The front becomes 
stationary from 31N62W to 31N65W to 33N69W. Precipitation: 
rainshowers are possible from 30N northward between 50W and 70W.
The 24-hour rainfall total, in inches, ending at 06/0000 UTC, 
for Bermuda, is 0.08.

A surface trough is along 29N60W to 27N64W, 25N66W, to 22N71W. 
Precipitation: rainshowers are possible within 60 nm to 120 nm 
on either side of the trough.

A cold front passes through 32N38W, to a 1016 mb low pressure 
center that is near 30N41W. A surface trough continues 
southwestward, from the 1016 mb low pressure center to 26N44W 
and 23N49W. Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 300 nm to 
the east and southeast of the cold front from 28N northward, and 
within 180 nm to the east and southeast of the surface trough 
from 22N to 28N.

A cold front will enter the NW waters on Wednesday. The front 
will extend
from 31N70W to the central Bahamas on Thursday. The cold front 
will move across the 
SE waters on Friday. Fresh to strong winds are expected on 
either 
side of the front. Southerly flow will increase in the NW part 
of the area on Friday night.
A second cold front is forecast to move off northern Florida on 
Saturday morning. The second cold front will extend from 31N65W 
to the NW Bahamas by Saturday night.

$$
mt