864 AXNT20 KNHC 052241 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2241 UTC Tue May 5 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 13N17W and continues to 07N22W. The ITCZ continues from 07N22W 03N30W to 05N45W to to the coast of Brazil near 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 05N between 35W and 45W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends from west central Florida toward southwest Louisiana and the north Texas coast, just ahead of a cold front over coastal Texas approaching the northwest Gulf. A trough is analyzed over the southwest Gulf along 92W/93W. Light to gentle S to SW winds are noted north of the ridge with 1 to 3 ft seas, mainly across the northeast Gulf. Moderate SE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted elsewhere, south of the ridge axis. The SE winds are bringing dense smoke from agricultural fires in southern Mexico to much of the southwest and south central Gulf. No significant shower or thunderstorm activity is evident across the Gulf at this time. For the forecast, the cold front will reach the northwest Gulf tonight, extend from southwest Florida to near Tampico, Mexico by Wed night into Thu, then exit the basin on Thu while weakening. Fresh to strong winds will follow the front through early Thu. Southerly return flow will increase across the northwest Gulf by Thu night ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the region Fri night. A low pressure system could develop along the frontal boundary over the southwest Gulf during the upcoming weekend. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are expected in association with the developing low and cold front. Otherwise, smoke from forest fires in southern Mexico could cause haze and reduced visibilities over the SW Gulf for the next few days. CARIBBEAN SEA... A combination of trade wind convergence, divergence aloft and rich deep layer moisture are working in concert to support scattered thunderstorms off the coast of the Bocas del Toro of western Panama. Elsewhere, generally fair weather prevails across the region being supported by dry air subsidence from aloft. High pressure over the central Atlantic supports pulsing fresh to strong trade winds over the south central Caribbean north of Colombia, while and moderate to fresh winds prevail over the eastern half of the basin. Light to gentle easterly winds are noted across the western Caribbean west of 80W. For the forecast, high pressure over the central Atlantic will maintain fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean, and moderate to fresh winds over the remainder of the basin through Fri afternoon, except for the northwest Caribbean, where gentle to moderate winds are expected. High pressure will develop over the western Atlantic by Fri evening, supporting fresh to strong trades across most of the waters south of 18N and east of 80W through Sun. Otherwise, smoke from forest fires in northern Central America may reduce visibilities over the Gulf of Honduras and near the Yucatan Peninsula. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface ridge extends westward along 27N into central Florida from a 1018 mb surface high centered near 27N67W. A recent ship observation along with earlier scatterometer data indicated moderate to fresh SW flow between the high pressure and a 1010 mb low pressure area moving through the coastal Carolinas. A weak surface trough is analyzed from the Turks and Caicos to near 25N68W. Light to gentle breezes are noted elsewhere across the Atlantic south of 32N and west of 60W, with 3 to 5 ft seas and no significant showers or thunderstorm activity. For the forecast, the cold front will enter off northeast Florida Wed, extend from near 31N70W to the central Bahamas on Thu, and move across the east of 60W Fri. Fresh to strong winds are expected on either side of the front. Southerly flow will increase off northeast Florida Fri night ahead of another cold front forecast to come off the coast of Georgia Sat morning and extend from 31N65W to the northern Bahamas by Sat night. Farther east, a relatively weak pressure pattern continues between a 1014 mb low near 29N44W and a 1018 mb high near 22N41W. The high pressure is strong enough to support moderate to fresh trades winds over the tropical Atlantic west of 20W, with seas 6 to 8 ft. $$ Christensen