605 AXNT20 KNHC 050435 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0430 UTC Tue May 5 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0415 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 09N13W and continues to 06N18W. The ITCZ continues from 06N18W to near the mouth of the Amazon River near 00N47W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 02N to 05N between 22W and 48W and scattered moderate convection along the coast of Brazil from 02S-06N. GULF OF MEXICO... Fair weather conditions remain across the Gulf under the influence of a middle to upper level ridge. High pressure over the Atlantic extends into the Gulf of Mexico. There are two troughs present, one in the Bay of Campeche not producing significant convection and a second trough along the Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen mainly inland associated with both troughs. Weak pressure gradient across the basin is providing variable to gentle winds in the eastern half of the basin, and supporting moderate return flow west of 90W. Seas across the basin ranges between 3 to 5 ft. For the forecast, surface high pres will prevail across the Gulf through Tue. A cold front will enter the northern gulf waters by Tue night, extend from Tampa Bay to near 28N88W Wed evening, then exit the basin early Thu. Fresh to strong winds are expected over the NE gulf Wed night as the front moves through this region. Another cold front will sink S over the northern Gulf Fri evening, extend from the Florida Big Bend to NE Mexico Sat morning and stall from near Tampa Bay to NE Mexico Sat night. Fresh to strong winds are forecast for the NW basin Thu night through early Fri. Otherwise, smoke from forest fires in southern Mexico may cause haze and reduced visibilities over the SW Gulf for the next several days. CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to strong trade winds persist off northeast Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela, with fresh trade winds elsewhere over the south central Caribbean. Seas are 5 to 8 ft in open waters across this area. Elsewhere gentle to moderate trade winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted. A few passing showers are noted from the Leeward Islands to Puerto Rico, elsewhere, no significant shower or thunderstorm activity is noted. Visibility over the Gulf of Honduras has improved. High pressure over the central Atlc will maintain fresh to strong trade winds over the S central Caribbean, and moderate to fresh winds over the remainder of the basin through Sat night, except for the NW Caribbean, where gentle to moderate winds are expected. Smoke from forest fires in northern Central America will reduce visibilities over the Gulf of Honduras and near the Yucatan Peninsula. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Most of the Atlantic basin is under the influence of a broad high pressure centered near 32N35W. A cold front extends from a 1006 mb low pressure north of the area from 31N44W to 27N49W. There are some scattered showers and thunderstorms about 100 nm east of the front. Moderate SW winds are noted north of 30N, ahead of a front. In the western Atlantic, an area of southwest winds is present north of 30N ahead of a cold front off the Carolinas. Elsewhere west of 60W, light to gentle winds are noted. Seas are 3 to 5 ft over open waters west of 60W. Deep layer E to SE flow across the tropical Atlantic south of the ridge is transporting Saharan dust to as far west as 45W. Moderate to fresh trade winds and 5 to 8 ft seas are observed south of the ridge to the ITCZ. A cold front is forecast to enter the NW offshore waters Wed night, extend from 30N68W to the central Bahamas Thu night, and move E of the area Fri night. Fresh to strong winds preceding and following the front will affect the offshore waters N of the Bahamas Wed night through Thu morning. A second cold front will come off the coast of Georgia Sat morning and extend from 30N76W to near Cape Canaveral, Florida by Sat night. && MTorres