000
AXNT20 KNHC 042319
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2318 UTC Mon May 4 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of W Africa near 09N13W
and continues to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N20W to near 
the mouth of the Amazon River near 01N47W. Widely scattered 
moderate convection is from 02N to 04N between 25W and 40W. 

GULF OF MEXICO...

Fair weather conditions remain across the Gulf under the 
influence of a middle to upper level ridge. A 1018 mb high is 
anchored over the NE Gulf near 27N86W providing variable light 
to gentle winds in the eastern half of the basin, and supporting 
moderate to fresh return flow west of 90W. Seas across the basin
ranges between 3 to 5 ft. Radar imagery shows the Gulf is void 
of precipitation.

Surface high pres will prevail across the Gulf 
through Tue. A cold front will enter the northern gulf waters by 
Tue night, extend from the Florida Big Bend to near 27N90W Wed 
evening, then exit the basin early Thu. Another cold front will 
sink S over the northern Gulf Fri evening. Surface troughs
associated with warm temperatures over Yucatan will form during
the evenings, move west from the Yucatan Peninsula and will 
support fresh to locally strong winds over the Bay of Campeche 
each evening through Sat night. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong trade winds persist off northeast Colombia and
the Gulf of Venezuela, with fresh trade winds elsewhere over the
south central Caribbean. Seas are 5 to 8 ft in open waters across
this area. Elsewhere gentle to moderate trade winds and and 3 to
5 ft seas are noted. A few passing showers are noted from the
Leeward Islands to Puerto Rico, Elsewhere, no significant shower
or thunderstorm activity is noted. Smoke over the Gulf of
Honduras has lessened today, and visibility in that area has
improved. 

For the forecast, surface ridging over the western Atlantic will
maintain fresh to strong trade winds over the south central 
Caribbean, and moderate to fresh winds over the remainder of the 
basin through Sat night, except for the northwest Caribbean, 
where gentle to moderate winds are expected.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A front is dissipating from 32N43W to 25N60W to 24N70W. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are active along the front near 30N47W.
Moderate to fresh SW winds are noted north of 30N and west of
65W. 1019 mb high pressure is centered west of the front near
32N56W. Moderate SW winds are noted north of 30N, ahead of a 
front moving off the Carolinas. Elsewhere west of 60W, light to
gentle winds are noted. Seas are 3 to 5 ft over open waters west
of 60W. The front will dissipate tonight. The next cold front will enter the
waters off northeast Florida Wed night, move SE and reach from 
30N66W to central Cuba Thu night, then weaken and stall from 
25N65W to the southern Bahamas by Fri night.

Farther east, 1018 mb high pressure is centered near 23N40W. Deep
layer E to SE flow across the tropical Atlantic south of the
ridge is transporting Saharan dust to as far west as 45W.
Moderate to fresh trade winds and 5 to 8 ft seas are observed
south of the ridge to the ITCZ.

$$
Christensen