000
AXNT20 KNHC 041154
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
754 AM EDT Mon May 4 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1145 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of W Africa near 08N13W
and continues to 03N19W. The ITCZ continues from 05N19W to 01N40W
to near the mouth of the Amazon River near 00N50W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 0N to 04N W of 25W to the coast of Brazil. 

GULF OF MEXICO...

Fair weather conditions remain across the Gulf under the influence
of a middle to upper level ridge. A 1017 mb high is anchored over
the NE gulf, which is providing variable light to gentle winds in
the eastern half of the basin and supporting moderate to fresh
return flow W of 90W. Seas across the basin ranges between 3 to 6
ft.

Surface high pressure will prevail across the Gulf through Tue. A
cold front will enter the northern gulf waters by Tue night, 
extend from the Florida Big Bend to near 27N90W Wed evening and 
exit the basin early on Thu. A second front will sink along the 
northern Gulf by Fri evening. Thermal troughs moving W from the 
Yucatan Peninsula will support fresh to locally strong winds on 
the Bay of Campeche each evening through Thu night. Otherwise, 
smoke from forest fires in southern Mexico may cause haze and 
reduced visibilities over the SW Gulf for the next several days. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Dry air subsidence from aloft continue to support stable
conditions across the Caribbean, except for Colombia and Panama
adjacent waters where middle level diffluence and abundant shallow
moisture support scattered showers. Otherwise, surface ridging 
over the western Atlc will maintain fresh to strong trade winds 
over the S central Caribbean, and moderate to fresh winds over the
remainder of the basin through Fri night, except for the NW 
Caribbean, where gentle to moderate winds are expected. Smoke from
forest fires in Central America will reduce visibilities over the
Gulf of Honduras and near the Yucatan Peninsula. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Surface high pressure continue to dominate the SW N Atlc and the
far E Atlc waters. In the central Atlc, a cold front extends from
31N49W to 27N55W to 25N62W where it transitions to a stationary
front that continues to 23N69W. Scattered moderate convection and
tstms are ahead of the front N of 25N to 55W. The cold portion of
the front will move between 40W and 50W tonight while the stationary
part of the front dissipates. Otherwise, the next cold front will
enter the NW waters Wed night and move SE to extend from 30N66W 
to central Cuba Thu night, and from 25N65W to the southern Bahamas
by Fri night.

$$
Ramos