000 AXNT20 KNHC 040430 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0430 UTC Mon May 4 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0415 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W and continues to 04N21W. The ITCZ continues from 04N21W to near the mouth of the Amazon River near 00N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is about 280 nm southeast of the monsoon trough along the coast of Liberia. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N to 06N between 21W and 27 and from 00 to 03N west of 39W to the coast of Brazil. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends along the northern Gulf from a 1018 mb high pressure centered over the western Atlantic near 29N73W and a second high centered in the eastern Gulf. Weak surface trough is noted over the southwest Gulf. This pattern is supporting light and variable winds over the northeast Gulf with seas 2 ft or less, and gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas elsewhere. No significant shower or thunderstorm activity is evident with the exception of trough over the Yucatan Peninsula with scattered convection noted in the vicinity. Moderate levels of smoke over the southwest Gulf may be limiting visibility in that area to some extent. For the forecast, surface ridging will remain over the central Gulf through mid week. The tail end of a cold front will cross the NE gulf Wed afternoon to pass E of the area by Thu. A second front will sink along the northern Gulf by Fri evening. Thermal troughs moving W from the Yucatan Peninsula will support fresh to locally strong winds on the Bay of Campeche each evening through Thu night. Smoke from forest fires in southern Mexico may cause haze and reduced visibilities over the SW Gulf for the next several days. CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure centered off the northern Bahamas is supporting fresh to strong winds and seas 6 to 8 ft off the coast of Colombia from the Guajira Peninsula to off Cartagena. Fresh to strong trades are also likely across the Gulf of Venezuela. Fresh trade winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are observed elsewhere across the south central Caribbean, with gentle to moderate trades and 2 to 4 ft seas elsewhere in the basin. Regional radar shows a few low-topped passing showers over the northwest Caribbean, west of the Cayman Islands. But no significant shower or thunderstorm activity is noted elsewhere. Dense smoke from forest fires and agricultural burning in Central America is reducing visibility over the Gulf of Honduras and near the Yucatan Peninsula. This smoke is dense at times, especially in the western Gulf of Honduras off Guatemala. Little change in the pattern is expected through the week. Surface ridging over the western Atlc will maintain fresh to strong trade winds over the S central Caribbean, and moderate to fresh winds over the remainder of the basin through Fri night, except for the NW Caribbean, where gentle to moderate winds are expected. Smoke from forest fires in Central America will reduce visibilities over the Gulf of Honduras and near the Yucatan Peninsula. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front reaches from 31N50W to 25N61W, then becomes stationary to 23N69W. A mid to upper level trough continues to support the northern portion of the front, north 26N and drive it eastward, while the southern portion of the front is weakening. The mid to upper level trough is also supporting clusters of thunderstorms near the front, from 27N to 31N between 46W and 53W. A 1020 mb high pressure is center west of the front near 28N75W, northeast of Grand Bahama Island. 1024 mb high pressure is centered east of the front near 26N42W. Fresh SW winds and 7 ft seas are noted just ahead of the front north of 28N. Elsewhere light to moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted over Atlantic waters west of 50W. Farther east, fresh to strong NW winds and seas 8 to 10 ft in NW swell follow dissipating cold front analyzed from Madeira to just west of the Canary Islands to 20N27W. For the forecast, a stationary front will dissipate on Mon. The next cold front will enter the NW waters Wed night and move SE to extend from 30N66W to central Cuba Thu evening and from 27N70W to eastern Cuba. $$ MTorres