000 AXNT20 KNHC 032311 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2311 UTC Sun May 3 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W and continues to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W to near the mouth of the Amazon River near 00N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 05N to 07N between 20W and 24W. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N to 03N between 45W and 47W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends along the northern Gulf from 1021 mb high pressure centered over the western Atlantic near 29N75W. A weak surface trough is noted over the southwest Gulf. This pattern is supporting light and variable winds over the northeast Gulf with seas 2 ft or less, and gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas elsewhere. No significant shower or thunderstorm activity is evident. Moderate levels of smoke over the southwest Gulf may be limiting visibility in that area to some extent. For the forecast, the surface ridging will remain over the central Gulf through mid week. The tail end of a cold front will cross the northeast Gulf Wed afternoon to pass east of the area by Thu. Daily surface troughs related to warm temperatures over the Yucatan peninsula will form off the west coast of Yucatan late each day and move west over the southwest Gulf, supporting fresh to locally strong winds across the Bay of Campeche each evening through Thu night. Smoke from forest fires and agricultural burning in southern Mexico may cause haze and reduced visibility over the southwest Gulf for the next several days. CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure centered off the northern Bahamas is supporting fresh to strong winds and seas 6 to 8 ft off the coast of Colombia from the Guajira Peninsula to off Cartagena. Fresh to strong trades are also likely across the Gulf of Venezuela. Fresh trade winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are observed elsewhere across the south central Caribbean, with gentle to moderate trades and 2 to 4 ft seas elsewhere in the basin. Regional radar shows a few low-topped passing showers over the northwest Caribbean, west of the Cayman Islands. But no significant shower or thunderstorm activity is noted elsewhere. Dense smoke from forest fires and agricultural burning in Central America is reducing visibility over the Gulf of Honduras and near the Yucatan Peninsula. This smoke is dense at times, especially in the western Gulf of Honduras off Guatemala. Little change in the pattern is expected through the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front reaches from 31N51W to 23N70W. A mid to upper level trough continues to support the northern portion of the front, north 27N and drive it eastward, while the southern portion of the front is weakening. The mid to upper level trough is also supporting clusters of thunderstorms near the front, from 27N to to 30N between 50W and 55W. 1021 mb high pressure is center west of the front near 28N75W, northeast of Grand Bahama Island. 1020 mb high pressure is centered east of the front near 25N45W. Fresh SW winds and 7 ft seas are noted just ahead of the front north of 30N. Elsewhere light to moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted over Atlantic waters west of 50W. For the forecast, the portion of the front north of 27N will continue to move into the central Atlantic through Mon, before becoming diffuse Tue. The trailing portion of the front will dissipate through early Mon. Another front will move off the northeast Florida coast Wed night and reach from 29N65W to the coast of Cuba near 22N78W Thu evening. Fresh to strong SW winds and seas to 7 ft can be expected ahead of the front Wed night north of the northern Bahamas and off northeast Florida. Farther east, fresh to strong W to NW winds and seas 8 to 10 ft in NW swell follow another cold front analyzed from Madeira to just west of the Canary Islands to 20N29W. Fresh trade winds and 5 to 8 ft seas are evident south of 15N and east of 30W. $$ Christensen