000 AXNT20 KNHC 031720 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 120 PM EDT Sun May 3 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the W coast of Africa near 08N13W and continues to 06N18W. The ITCZ continues from 06N18W to 02N30W to the coast of Brazil near 00N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 03N to 08N between 13W and 24W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 07N between 44W and 54W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1022 mb high over the W Atlantic near 30N76W is producing 10-15 kt SE return flow over the Gulf of Mexico. Fair weather is over the entire Gulf. Dense smoke is over the SW Gulf S of 24N and W of 90W. Latest middle level water vapor and low level precipitable water imagery show very dry conditions across the basin. Surface ridging will remain over the central Gulf through the middle of next week. The tail end of a cold front will enter the NE Gulf on Wed afternoon and move east of the area by Thu. Thermal troughs moving W from the Yucatan Peninsula will support fresh to locally strong winds on the Bay of Campeche each evening through Wed night. Otherwise, smoke from agricultural fires in southern Mexico may cause haze and reduced visibilities over the SW Gulf for the next several days. CARIBBEAN SEA... 10-20 kt trade winds are over the Caribbean Sea. Strongest winds are along the coast of N Colombia. Scattered showers are over the SW Caribbean. Surface ridging over the Atlc waters N of the region will maintain fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean, and moderate to fresh winds across the remainder eastern half of the basin through Thu night. Gentle to moderate winds are expected elsewhere. Otherwise, smoke from agricultural fires in Central America may cause haze and reduced visibilities over the Gulf of Honduras and near the Yucatan Peninsula. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1022 mb high is over the W Atlantic near 30N76W. A cold front enters the W Atlantic near 31N55W and extends to 23N70W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the front. A 1023 mb high is over the central Atlantic near 28N44W. A cold front enters the E Atlantic near 31N18W and extends to 20N30W to 20N40W. Scattered showers are W of the Canary Islands. The W Atlantic cold front will stall from 25N50W to the southern Bahamas before dissipating on Mon. Otherwise, a second cold front will enter the NW waters Wed night and extend from 30N68W to the southern Bahamas by Thu night. $$ Formosa