000 AXNT20 KNHC 031059 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 659 AM EDT Sun May 3 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the W coast of Africa near 08N13W and continues to 04N17W. The ITCZ continues from 04N17W to 02N35W to the coast of Brazil near 00N50W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 03N to 08N between 08W and 20W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N to 05N between 37W and 54W. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface high pressure anchored by a 1021 mb high just off the coast of Jacksonville, Florida extends a ridge axis SW to another center of high pressure centered off the Florida Big Bend. This continues to support moderate to fresh SE winds in the western half of the Gulf of Mexico and gentle to moderate easterlies elsewhere. Latest middle level water vapor and low level precipitable water imagery show very dry conditions across the basin. These weather conditions are forecast to continue through the middle of the week. Surface ridging will remain over the central Gulf through the middle of next week. The tail of a cold front will enter the NE gulf on Wed afternoon and move east of the area by Thu. Thermal troughs moving W from the Yucatan Peninsula will support fresh to locally strong winds on the Bay of Campeche each evening through Wed night. Otherwise, smoke from agricultural fires in southern Mexico may cause haze and reduced visibilities over the SW Gulf for the next several days. CARIBBEAN SEA... Middle level water vapor imagery continue to show stable conditions aloft while the low level precipitable water imagery show abundant shallow moisture S-SE of Hispaniola, possibly supporting a few passing showers in that region. Surface ridging over the Atlc waters N of the region will maintain fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean, and moderate to fresh winds across the remainder eastern half of the basin through Thu night. Gentle to moderate winds are expected elsewhere. Otherwise, smoke from agricultural fires in Central America may cause haze and reduced visibilities over the Gulf of Honduras and near the Yucatan Peninsula. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N56W to 23N68W then transitions to a stationary front to the central Bahamas near 23N75W and continues to 23N80W. Scattered showers and tstms are ahead of the front N of 25N between 47W and 60W. Farther east, another cold front enters the forecast area from 31N21W to 22N30W to 20N38W where it becomes stationary to 21N50W. The cold front in the SW N Atlc waters will stall from 25N65W to the southern Bahamas this morning before dissipating on Mon. Otherwise, a second cold front will enter the NW waters Wed night and extend from 30N68W to the southern Bahamas by Thu night. $$ Ramos