000 AXNT20 KNHC 030447 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0445 UTC Sun May 3 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0430 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 01N12W to 05N16W. The ITCZ continues from 05N16W to 01N35W to the coast of Brazil near 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is about 200 nm of the ITCZ and 100 nm south of the monsoon trough. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extend from a 1021 mb high pressure area centered just offshore the Florida Panhandle near 29N86W. Ship and buoy observations along with recent scatterometer data show light and variable winds over the far northeast Gulf near the center of the high pressure, fresh onshore flow along the south Texas coast, and gentle E to SE winds elsewhere. Seas are 1 to 3 ft overall. No significant shower or thunderstorm activity is noted. A surface trough is present along the west coast of the Yucatan peninsula. Smoke from agricultural fires over southern Mexico is evident across the southern Gulf. Surface ridging will remain over the central Gulf through the middle of next week. Thermal troughs moving W from the Yucatan Peninsula will support fresh to locally strong winds on the Bay of Campeche each evening through Wed night. Smoke from agricultural fires in southern Mexico may cause haze and reduced visibilities over the SW Gulf for the next several days. CARIBBEAN SEA... Recent scatterometer pass confirmed fresh trade winds from the ABC Islands in the south central Caribbean to 79W. Fresh to strong trades are noted off Colombia and possibly in the Gulf of Venezuela as well. Reports from buoy 42058 in the central Caribbean also show winds reaching 20 kt at times. The fresh trade winds are due to high pressure centered north of the area over the southeastern US. Moderate easterly winds are noted elsewhere. Significant wave heights are 5 to 7 ft in the southern Caribbean, except reaching 8 ft off Colombia, and 3 to 5 elsewhere. The pattern remains fairly dry, and only a few passing showers are noted on regional radars from the Leeward Islands through Puerto Rico. Smoke has diminished slightly over the Gulf of Honduras. Surface ridging over the Atlc waters N of the region will maintain fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean, and moderate to fresh winds across the remainder eastern half of the basin through Thu night. Gentle to moderate winds are expected elsewhere. Smoke from agricultural fires in Central America may cause haze and reduced visibilities over the Gulf of Honduras and near the Yucatan Peninsula. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak cold front extends from 30N59W to 24N68W where it becomes stationary through the central Bahamas to near 23N79W. A mid/upper level trough just east of Bermuda is energizing the northern portion of the front, but the southern portion is starting to weaken. The mid/upper trough is also supporting showers and thunderstorms south of the front, north of 23N to 31N and up to 80 nm southeast of the boundary. A ridge extends from 1021 mb high pressure centered over 29N76W. Scatterometer observations indicated fresh SE winds ahead of the front and north of 29N, east of the ridge. Seas are likely near 8 ft in this area, but 5 to 7 ft is observed elsewhere outside of the Bahamas west of 60W. Farther east, another cold front enters the Forecast area from 31N21W to 20N39W to 21N49W, then becomes stationary to 23N53W. Moderate to fresh NW winds are observed following this front, and earlier altimeter satellite data showed seas of 8 to 12 ft. Moderate to fresh trade winds are noted farther south, with seas 5 to 8 ft. The cold front in the western Atlantic will transition to a stationary front from 25N65W to 23N73W Sun. The front will then dissipate by Mon. High pres will prevail across the northern waters through Tue night, then shift E ahead of a cold front entering the waters NW of the Bahamas Thu. $$ MTorres