000 AXNT20 KNHC 022327 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2327 UTC Sat May 2 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W to 02N35W to the coast of Brazil near 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N-07N between 13W-20W and from 04N-06N between 40W-45W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extend from a 1022 mb high pressure area centered over south Georgia to the central Texas coast. Ship and buoy observations along with recent scatterometer data show light and variable winds over the far northeast Gulf near the center of the high pressure, fresh onshore flow along the south Texas coast, and gentle to moderate E to SE winds elsewhere. Seas are 1 to 3 ft overall. No significant shower or thunderstorm activity is noted. A surface trough is forming along the west coast of the Yucatan peninsula. Smoke from agricultural fires over southern Mexico is evident across the southern Gulf. The surface ridge will persist from the western Atlantic to the central Gulf through the middle of next week. A surface trough related to very warm temperatures over the Yucatan peninsula will develop most evening over the northwest part of the peninsula, then shift westward through the night, accompanied by pulses of fresh to locally strong easterly winds at night through mid week. Smoke from agricultural fires in southern Mexico may continue cause haze and reduced visibilities over the southwest Gulf for the next several days. CARIBBEAN SEA... A scatterometer pass from earlier today confirmed fresh trade winds over the ABC Islands in the south central Caribbean. Fresh to strong trades are also likely off Colombia and possibly in the Gulf of Venezuela as well. Reports from buoy 42058 in the central Caribbean also show winds reaching 20 kt at times. The fresh trade winds are due to high pressure centered north of the area over the southeastern US. Moderate easterly winds are noted elsewhere. Significant wave heights are 5 to 7 ft in the southern Caribbean, except reaching 8 ft off Colombia, and 3 to 5 elsewhere. The pattern remains fairly dry, and only a few passing showers are noted on regional radars from the Leeward Islands through Puerto Rico. Smoke has diminished slightly over the Gulf of Honduras. For the forecast, ridging over the western Atlantic will maintain fresh to locally strong trade winds over the central Caribbean through Thu night. Gentle to moderate winds are expected elsewhere. Smoke from agricultural fires in Central America may cause haze and reduced visibilities over the Gulf of Honduras and near the Yucatan Peninsula. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak cold front extends from 32N61W to 26N70W where it becomes stationary through the central Bahamas. A mid/upper level trough just east of Bermuda is energizing the northern portion of the front, but the southern portion is starting to weaken. The mid/upper trough is also supporting a cluster of showers and thunderstorms south of the front, around 270 nm northeast of the Turks and Caicos Islands. A ridge extends from 1022 mb high pressure centered over southern Georgia eastward along 28N. A pair of earlier ship observations indicated fresh NW winds following the front north of 28N, east of the ridge. Seas are likely near 8 ft in this area, but 5 to 7 ft is observed elsewhere outside of the Bahamas west of 60W. The portion of the front north of 28N will continue east through Mon before dissipating Tue. The southern portion of front will dissipate by Mon. High pres will prevail across 28N through Tue night, then shift east ahead of a cold front entering the waters northwest of the Bahamas Thu. Farther east, another cold front extends from low pressure near the Azores to 22N35W to 22N55W. Moderate to fresh NW winds are observed following this front, and earlier altimeter satellite data showed seas of 8 to 12 ft. Moderate to fresh trade winds are noted farther south, with seas 5 to 8 ft. $$ Christensen