000 AXNT20 KNHC 021804 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 204 PM EDT Sat May 2 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N20W to 03N30W to 02N40W to the coast of Brazil near 02N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 01N-05N between 06W-17W. Clusters of scattered moderate convection are from 10N- 02S between 20W-52W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1023 mb high is centered over the Florida panhandle near 31N85W. 5-10 kt anticyclonic surface flow is over the NE Gulf. 10-15 kt SE winds are over the remainder of the Gulf. Radar imagery shows the Gulf is void of precipitation. An upper level high is also centered near 24N96W. High pressure ridging W from the western Atlantic will remain over the central Gulf through the middle of next week. Thermal troughs moving W from the Yucatan Peninsula will bring fresh to locally strong winds to the waters W of the peninsula each evening through Wed night. Smoke from agricultural fires in southern Mexico may cause haze and reduced visibilities over the SW Gulf for the next several days. CARIBBEAN SEA... AS of 02/1500 UTC a dissipating stationary front extends from central Cuba near 22N78W to the Yucatan Peninsula near 19N87W. No precipitation is noted along the front. 15-25 kt trade winds are over the remainder of the Caribbean Sea with highest winds along the coast of N Colombia. Radar imagery shows scattered showers over Puerto Rico. Similar showers are over the Windward Islands. Elsewhere, scattered showers are along the coasts of Panama and Costa Rica. The GFE model for 250 mb, and the current water vapor satellite imagery, show broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow across the Caribbean Sea. A ridge over the western Atlantic will maintain fresh to locally strong trade winds over the central Caribbean through Tue. Gentle to moderate winds are expected elsewhere. Smoke from agricultural fires in Central America may cause haze and reduced visibilities over the Gulf of Honduras and E of the Yucatan peninsula. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A western Atlantic cold front extends from 31N64W to 26N70W to 24N74W. A stationary front continues to 22N78W. Scattered moderate convection is N of 28N between 54W-64W. Scattered showers are elsewhere within 240 nm E of the front N of 24N. A 1027 mb high is over the central Atlantic near 33N48W. A cold front is over the E Atlantic from 31N27W to 25N32W to 22N40W to 23N50W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the front. The western Atlantic front will move slowly SE and become stationary from 25N60W to 23N73W Sun. The front will then dissipate by Mon. High pressure will then prevail across the western Atlantic through Tue night. $$ Formosa