000 AXNT20 KNHC 011030 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 AM EDT Fri May 1 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 08N13W, to 03N21W. The ITCZ continues from 03N21W, to 01N33W, and to 01N47W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is within 150 nm on either side of the ITCZ between 29W and 45W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is from 07N southward between 46W and 57w. GULF OF MEXICO... Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico from 93W eastward. An upper level trough extends from the eastern U.S.A. to Florida. A cold front has exited the basin, and 1018 mb high pressure behind the front is centered near 28N93W. Precipitation: isolated showers N of the Yucatan Peninsula. High pressure in the NW Gulf will slowly shift eastward through Mon. Southerly winds will increase early next week. Smoke from agricultural fires in southern Mexico may cause haze and reduced visibilities in the southern Gulf during the next several days. CARIBBEAN SEA... The GFE model for 250 mb, and the current water vapor satellite imagery, show broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow across the Caribbean Sea. Comparatively drier air is apparent in water vapor imagery from 70W eastward. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible, in broken low level clouds, to the east of the line that extends from SE Cuba to the Peninsula de la Guajira of N Colombia. The 24-hour precipitation total, in inches, ending at 01/0000 UTC, for Guadeloupe, is : 0.30. A ridge over the western Atlantic will maintain fresh trade winds in the central Caribbean through Sun. Gentle to moderate winds are expected elsewhere. Smoke from agricultural fires in Central America may cause haze and reduced visibilities in the Gulf of Honduras and east of the Yucatan peninsula. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough extends from the eastern U.S.A. to Florida. A cold front passes through 32N76W in the Atlantic Ocean, into the Straits of Florida to the northern coast of Cuba near 23N83W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 360 nm to 420 nm to the east of the cold front, from the Bahamas northward. A trough, what is left of a dissipating stationary front, is in the central Atlantic Ocean. The trough passes from 31N39W to 24N59W. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate is from 30N northward to the east of the front. Isolated moderate is within 120 nm to the east of the front from 26N to 30N. Rainshowers are possible, elsewhere, in broken low level clouds, from 20N northward between 46W and 70W. The cold front from 32N76W to southern Florida the Straits of Florida, will move eastward and reach from Bermuda to the southern Bahamas Sat, then stall and weaken from 27N65W to eastern Cuba Sun. High pressure will prevail across the northern waters through early next week. $$ mt/DBM