000 AXNT20 KNHC 010537 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EDT Fri May 01 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0510 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 08N13W, to 05N16W, and 03N21W. The ITCZ continues from 03N21W, to 01N33W, and to 01N47W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is within 150 nm on either side of the ITCZ between 24W and 45W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 03N northward between 07W and 09W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is from 07N southward between 46W and 57w. GULF OF MEXICO... Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico from 93W eastward. The upper level trough from 24 hours ago now extends from the eastern U.S.A. to Florida. A cold front passes through 32N78W in the Atlantic Ocean, to Florida just to the NW of Lake Okeechobee, across the SE Gulf of Mexico, to the north central coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, into the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate is in the eastern coastal sections of the Yucatan Peninsula. The current cold front, that is in the SE Gulf of Mexico, will exit from the basin on Friday morning. High pressure will prevail across the region through early next week. Smoke, from agricultural fires in southern Mexico, may cause haze and reduced visibilities in the southern Gulf of Mexico during the next several days. CARIBBEAN SEA... The GFE model for 250 mb, and the current water vapor satellite imagery, show broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow across the Caribbean Sea. Comparatively drier air is apparent in water vapor imagery from 70W eastward. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible, in broken low level clouds, to the east of the line that extends from SE Cuba to the Peninsula de la Guajira of N Colombia. The 24-hour precipitation total, in inches, ending at 01/0000 UTC, for Guadeloupe, is : 0.30. A ridge in the western Atlantic Ocean will maintain fresh trade winds in the central Caribbean Sea through Sunday. Gentle to moderate winds are expected elsewhere. Smoke, from agricultural fires in Central America, may cause haze and reduced visibilities in the western Gulf of Honduras. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The upper level trough, that was in the Gulf of Mexico 24 hours ago, now extends from the eastern U.S.A. to Florida. A cold front passes through 32N78W in the Atlantic Ocean, to Florida just to the NW of Lake Okeechobee, across the SE Gulf of Mexico, to the north central coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, into the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 360 nm to 420 nm to the east and southeast of the cold front, from Cuba northward. A dissipating stationary front is in the central Atlantic Ocean. The front passes through 32N39W to 28N44W to 24N59W. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate is from 30N northward to the east of the front. Isolated moderate is within 120 nm to the east of the front from 26N to 30N. Rainshowers are possible, elsewhere, in broken low level clouds, from 20N northward between 46W and 70W. The current cold front from 31N77W to southern Florida will move eastward, and reach from Bermuda to the southern Bahamas on Saturday. The cold front will stall, and weaken from 27N65W to eastern Cuba on Sunday. Weak high pressure will prevail across the northern waters early next week. $$ mt