000 AXNT20 KNHC 301059 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 659 AM EDT Thu Apr 30 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 07N13W, to 06N17W to 05N22W. The ITCZ continues from 04N22W to 01N34W to 02N45W to 03.5N52W. A second ITCZ passes through 01S32W to 01S37W, to the Equator along 42W and along the Equator to 47W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 10N from 16W to the African coast. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 90 nm N of the ITCZ between 22W and 37W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 02.5S to 07.5N between 38W and 56W. GULF OF MEXICO... An energetic upper level trough is moving across the southeastern U.S. and extends SW across the central Gulf of Mexico to northern Mexico. The trough is supporting a cold front, that extends from the Florida Big Bend to near 24N90W to the coast of Mexico near 22N98W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to shift eastward, ahead of the front, and extend from just offshore of the NE coast of the Yucatan the to W coast of Florida. Nocturnal convection across eastern Mexico is shifting eastward into the Mexican coastal waters from 23N to the central Bay of Campeche. Strong thunderstorms earlier tonight produced a broad area of strong to neargale force winds across central and west central portions of the Gulf and kicked seas up to 11 ft in NE swell. Those seas are moving SW and into the SW Gulf this morning and are not expected to subside below 8 ft before late morning. Scattered thunderstorms will continue across the southeast Gulf of Mexico this morning, ahead of the cold front. The front will continue to move SE and reach from near Naples, Florida to Tuxpan, Mexico this afternoon, then reach W Cuba to the northern Yucatan Peninsula Fri morning, where it will begin to stall and dissipate through Sat. High pressure will settle into the NE Gulf behind the front Fri night through early next week. Smoke due to agricultural fires over southern Mexico will persist over the far southwest Gulf for the next few days. CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure aloft and stable atmospheric conditions prevail across the eastern Caribbean E of 70W, where low clouds and shallow trade wind showers are seen in satellite imagery. Tradewinds across the basin have veered to east-southeast overnight across eastern portions, and southeast to southwinds across NW portions, while strong easterly trades prevail across south-central portions. High pressure over the western Atlantic will shift NE through Fri, allowing for diminished tradewinds across the E and central Caribbean from Fri into early next week. This will produce moderate winds and seas across most of the basin. Smoke from agricultural fires in Central America will continue to reduce visibility over the western Gulf of Honduras. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front stretches across the Atlantic from 31N46W to 24N60W then continues as a shear line to 24N76W. Broken multi-layered clouds with scattered embedded showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen within 240 nm N of the front to the east of 62W A cold front approaching the SE coast of the U.S. is combining with high pressure over the NW Atlantic to produce fresh to strong SE to S winds across the waters NE through N of the Bahamas. Scattered strong thunderstorms in lines are occurring over the waters east of Florida to the N of 27N and W of 77.5W. The current shearline will dissipate gradually through this afternoon. This next cold front will move off the southeastern U.S. coast and into the NW forecast waters later today, with the fresh to strong southerly winds and active weather continuing from the NW Bahamas to offshore of northeast Florida. The front will continue east and reach from Bermuda to the south central Bahamas Sat, before weakening and becoming stationary from near 27N65W to the southern Bahamas to eastern Cuba on Sun. Weak high pressure will settle across the northern waters Mon ahead of the next front to exit the SE U.S. $$ Stripling