000 AXNT20 KNHC 292203 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 603 PM EDT Wed Apr 29 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 09N14W to 04N20W. The ITCZ extends from 04N20W to 01S34W to the coast of Brazil near 01S46W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 180 nm of the ITCZ west of 27W. GULF OF MEXICO... A vigorous mid- to upper-level trough extends into the NW Gulf, driving a cold front southward toward the Texas coast. A squall line that extended from 29N88W to 26N90W to 25N95W earlier this afternoon continues moving SE across the northern Gulf, bringing frequent lightning and strong, gusty winds. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh southerly winds are noted in buoy observations over the NE Gulf. Seas are generally 3-6 ft across the Gulf, although locally higher seas are likely in thunderstorms along the squall line. Earlier, visible satellite imagery depicted smoke across the Bay of Campeche that could reduce visibility at times over the SW Gulf. Scattered thunderstorms, some strong, will persist in the central and northeast Gulf this evening ahead of a cold front moving through the Texas coastal plains. The front will move into the northwest Gulf by early this evening, reach from near Tampa Florida to near Tampico Mexico early Thu, stall from the Straits of Florida to near Veracruz Mexico early Fri, then will dissipate through Sat. High pressure will settle into the NE Gulf behind the front Fri night through early next week. Smoke due to agricultural fires over southern Mexico will persist over the far southwest Gulf into mid week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to strong trade winds prevail in the south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia, with a plume of 7-9 ft seas extending downstream of Barranquilla. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trades continue across much of the basin. Some locally fresh winds are found near the northern coast of Honduras. Smoke from fires in Central America is likely limiting visibility in the Gulf of Honduras and the Yucatan Basin. No significant convection is noted in the Caribbean this evening. High pressure over the western Atlantic will shift NE through Fri, allowing for diminished tradewinds across the E and central Caribbean from Fri into early next week. Smoke from agricultural fires in Central America will continue to reduce visibility over the western Gulf of Honduras. Some improvement of these conditions may occur by the end of the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front is analyzed from 32N50W to 26N60W to 24N67W, where it transitions to a stationary front and reaches to the central Bahamas. The latest satellite and lightning data indicate scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue within 120 nm of the front. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are occurring over the offshore waters N and NE of the Bahamas, between the front and 1027 mb high pressure centered near 34N69W. Farther east, a high pressure ridge dominates the central and eastern Atlantic, with moderate to fresh trades generally south of 22N and 5-8 ft seas based on earlier altimeter data. A weak cold front is stalling along roughly 24N through the central Bahamas, and will dissipate through tonight. Another cold front will move off the southeastern U.S. coast and into the NW forecast waters Thu preceded by fresh to strong southerly winds and active weather beginning by early evening off northeast Florida and north of Grand Bahama. The front will continue east and reach from Bermuda to the southern Bahamas Sat, before becoming a weakening stationary front from near 27N65W to the southern Bahamas and to eastern Cuba Sun. $$ B Reinhart