863 AXNT20 KNHC 291710 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1250 PM EDT Wed Apr 29 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1640 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 03N21W. The ITCZ continues from 03N21W to 00N29W to the coast of Brazil near 01S46W. Isolated thunderstorms are within 75 nm of the monsoon trough E of 14W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is along the ITCZ from 06S-04N and W of 27W. GULF OF MEXICO... A vigorous upper level trough extends into the northwestern Gulf and supports a cold front pressing southward across Texas. A squall line, producing frequent lightning and gusty winds, is moving southward across the NW Gulf from 28N89W to 26N94W to 27N97W. Scattered thunderstorms continue across the NW Gulf along the Texas and Louisiana coast in addition to the north- central Gulf. Fresh to strong NE winds are behind the squall line with gale force gusts. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are in the central and eastern Gulf and light winds in the southern basin. Seas range 4 to 6 ft. Light to moderate smoke from fires across Mexico could lower visibilities across the Bay of Campeche. Scattered thunderstorms, some strong, will persist in the northwest and north central Gulf this afternoon ahead of a cold front moving through the southern Plains. The front will move into the northwest Gulf later this afternoon, reach from near Tampa Florida to near Tampico Mexico by early Thu, stall from the Straits of Florida to near Veracruz Mexico early Fri, then will dissipate through Sat. High pressure will settle into the NE Gulf behind the front Fri night through Sun. Smoke due to agricultural fires over southern Mexico may improve slightly thorugh late week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Stable atmospheric conditions persist across the eastern Caribbean, scattered showers prevail. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are along the coasts of Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama, and Colombia, S of 14N between 75W-83W. Fresh to strong tradewinds continue across the south central Caribbean with moderate to fresh trades throughout the rest of the basin. Seas range from 3 to 6 ft. Dense smoke in the Gulf of Honduras is limiting visibility in that region. High pressure over the western Atlantic will shift NE through Fri, allowing for diminished tradewinds across the E and central Caribbean Fri through Sun. Smoke from agricultural fires in Central America will continue to reduce visibility over the western Gulf of Honduras. Some improvement of these conditions may occur by the end of the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 31N54W to 24N68W, then stalls from that point to 23N77W. Scattered thunderstorms are within 80 nm of the stationary front and scattered showers are within 165 nm east of the cold front. Moderate to fresh NE winds are behind the front. High pressure extends across the rest of the Atlantic anchored by two 1025 mb highs near 31N22W and 28N38W. A weak cold front is stalling along roughly 24N through the central Bahamas, and will dissipate through tonight. Another cold front will move off the southeastern U.S. coast and into the NW forecast waters Thu preceded by fresh to strong southerly winds and active weather beginning late today. The front will continue east and reach from Bermuda to the southern Bahamas Sat, before becoming a weakening stationary from near 27N65W to the southern Bahamas and to eastern Cuba Sun. $$ AReinhart