000 AXNT20 KNHC 281040 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 640 AM EDT Tue Apr 28 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0950 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N13W to 04N19W. The ITCZ continues from 04N19W to 00N40W to the coast of Brazil near 01S47W. Widely scattered convection is noted from 00N to 03N between 19W and 29W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 05N to 02S between 29W and 50W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front exited the Gulf of Mexico overnight and has stalled across NW Cuba where it will dissipate today. A 1023 mb high is along the eastern seaboard and extends a ridge SW to the central Gulf. This is promoting fresh SE return flow across the west central and NW Gulf this morning. centered over the NE Gulf near 30N87W. Surface ridging and dry air is over the Gulf. Widely scattered moderate convection is over the northern Yucatan Peninsula and adjacent waters, while broken multi layered clouds and a few showers are embedded in the SE wind flow across the NW Gulf. A new cold front will move into the northern Gulf Wed evening, and reach from the Florida Big Bend to northeastern Mexico Thu morning. The front will weaken as it reaches from SW Florida to near 23.5N90W to western Bay of Campeche Fri morning, then reach from NW Cuba to just offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula Sat morning. High pressure will settle into the NE Gulf behind the front Fri night through Sat. Smoke from agricultural fires over SE Mexico and Central America will produce periods of reduced visibility over the Bay of Campeche. CARIBBEAN SEA... The tail end of a weak cold front extends from central Cuba to the Yucatan Channel, where it has stalled and will dissipate today. Widely scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are noted over the N Yucatan Peninsula N of 19N. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is over the coastal waters of Panama and Costa Rica south of 11N and west of 81W Colombia. Fresh to strong tradewinds with seas 7-10 ft prevail across the waters south of 14.5N across the waters of Colombia and western Venezuela. High pressure extending from the central Atlantic to just east of the NW Bahamas will maintain fresh to strong tradewinds over the south-central Caribbean today before the high shifts ENE ahead of a west Atlantic cold front, allowing for a modest weakening of winds Wed through Fri. Smoke from agricultural fires in Central America will continue to produce periods reduce visibilities over the Gulf of Honduras for the next few days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front over the W Atlantic extends from 31N65W through the central Bahamas to NW Cuba. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 90 nm SE of the front from the Bahamas northeastward across the open Atlantic. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds generally prevail west of the front. A 1023 mb high is over the central Atlantic near 29N41W producing fair weather east of 60W. Scatterometer data shows fresh to strong winds N of 30N just ahead of the front. The portion of the front east of the Bahamas will continue moving eastward and gradually become aligned east to west along 25N through Wed night. Another cold front will move off the southeastern U.S. coast and into the NW forecast waters Thu evening preceded by fresh to strong southerly winds beginning Wed evening. The front will reach from near 31N74W to the Florida Keys Florida Fri morning, and weaken as it reaches from 31N68W to the central Bahamas to central Cuba Sat morning. $$ Stripling