000 AXNT20 KNHC 272241 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 641 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2215 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 03N19W. The ITCZ continues from 03N19W to 00N36W to the coast of Brazil near 00N51W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 04N between 16W and 20W, and also from 01N to 06N between 32W and 45W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from the western tip of Cuba to across the Yucatan Channel to along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted over central and western Cuba, as well as across the Yucatan Peninsula north of 20N. A surface trough is in the southwest Gulf of Mexico from near Tampico, Mexico to 17N93W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted near this trough. Otherwise, surface ridging and dry air is over the northern Gulf of Mexico, behind the front. The cold front along the southern boundary of the basin will wash out and dissipate tonight. A new cold front will move into the northern Gulf Wed evening, and reach from the Florida Big Bend to northeastern Mexico Thu morning. The western part of the front will become stationary and weaken through late Thu night, while the rest of the front will weaken as it exits the SE Gulf late Fri. Weak high pressure in the wake of this front will slide eastward across the northern waters through Sat night. Smoke from agricultural fires over SE Mexico and Central America may reduce visibility over the Bay of Campeche. CARIBBEAN SEA... As mentioned above, a cold front extends from the western tip of Cuba to across the Yucatan Channel to along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted over central and western Cuba, as well as across the Yucatan Peninsula north of 20N. Additional scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted over eastern Cuba due to daytime heating and seabreeze convergence. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also noted from NW Colombia to across Panama and Costa Rica, extending offshore. Fresh to strong trades are noted by afternoon scatterometer data in the south-central Caribbean due to a tight pressure gradient between low pressure over northern Colombia and high pressure NE of the area, with moderate to fresh trades elsewhere outside of the northwest Caribbean where gentle to moderate trades are. The cold front along the northwest boundary of the basin will wash out and dissipate tonight. High pressure extending from the central Atlantic to the NW Bahamas will maintain fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean through Tue before gradually weakening Wed through Fri. Smoke from agricultural fires in Central America will continue to reduce visibilities over the Gulf of Honduras for the next few days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from near 32N69W to across the central Bahamas to northwest Cuba. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted within 90-120 nm southeast of the front. Afternoon scatterometer data showed fresh to strong winds N of 30N just ahead of the front, and back along 80W where the local pressure gradient was tight. Moderate to fresh winds were noted elsewhere west of 60W. East of 60W, 1024 mb high pressure is noted near 19N47W with ridging dominating the open waters of the tropical Atlantic. The cold front will reach from near 29N65W to 26N69W later tonight, then as a weakening stationary front to central Cuba early on Tue. The cold front portion will shift east of the southwest- north Atlantic area Tue evening, while the stationary part will gradually dissipate through Wed. Another cold front will move off the southeastern U.S. coast and into the northwest forecast waters Thu, preceded by fresh to strong southerly winds beginning Wed. The front will reach from near 31N76W to east-central Florida Fri morning, and weaken as it reaches from the central Bahamas to NW Cuba Sat. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead of this front. $$ Lewitsky