000 AXNT20 KNHC 261728 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 128 PM EDT Sun Apr 26 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 04N16W. The ITCZ continues from 04N16W to 02S35W to the coast of Brazil near 01S47W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05S-06N between 22W-36W, and from 03S-07N between 42W-55W. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 26/1500 UTC, a cold front extends across the basin from Tampa Bay Florida to 25N90W to the coast of Mexico near 22N98W. Fresh N to NE winds are behind the front. A pre-frontal trough is over Florida from Stuart to Ft. Myers to 25N84W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is along the pre-frontal trough and over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico from 23N-27N between South Florida and 90W. Another trough is producing scattered showers over the Bay of Campeche. Drier air prevails behind the cold front. A 1022 mb high centered near Dallas Texas is building ridging over the Gulf behind the front. The cold front will move slowly southward across the western Gulf while moving SE across the eastern Gulf through tonight, then exit the area on Mon morning. Another cold front will move into the northern Gulf Wed afternoon and reach from the Florida Big Bend to 25N90W to northeastern Mexico early Thu. The western part of the front will become stationary and weaken through late Thu night, while the rest of the front will weaken as it exits the SE Gulf Fri. Weak high pressure will build across the area in the wake of this front. CARIBBEAN SEA... Mid-level ridging prevails across the basin, leading to subsidence and dry air across much of the area. Some scattered showers and isolated tstorms are seen between Cuba and the Cayman Islands, due to the influence of a frontal system to the north of the area, over Florida and the SE Gulf of Mexico. The latest ASCAT pass shows strong trades in the south-central Caribbean. Fresh trades are elsewhere over the eastern and central Caribbean, east of 79W and south of 18N. Fresh SE winds are in the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate winds are seen elsewhere in the western Caribbean. High pressure extending from the central Atlantic to the NW Bahamas will maintain fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean through Tue before weakening. Strong east to southeast winds will pulse at night over the Gulf of Honduras this weekend. A weak cold front will sink across W Cuba and the Yucatan Channel Mon through Mon night before dissipating Tue. Smoke from agricultural fires in Central America could reduce visibility over the Gulf of Honduras for the next several days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... As of 26/1500 UTC, a cold front extends from 32N78W to Cape Canaveral Florida to Tampa Bay Florida. A pre-frontal trough is from 28N79W across Florida to 25N84W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen within 270 nm ahead of the cold front, including waters north of 23.5N and west of 73W. This includes South Florida and the northwest Bahamas. Fresh W winds are behind the front north of 29N, with moderate wind speeds elsewhere across the west Atlantic. Farther east, ridging prevails across the remainder of the Atlantic, anchored by a 1025 mb high near 30N44W. Gentle winds are near the east-west oriented surface ridge axis, which extends along 28/29N between 37W-70W. Fresh trades are in the tropics, from 05N-21N, between 39W-65W. For the forecast west of 65W, the cold front from 32N78W to Tampa Bay will move SE across the offshore waters and reach from 31N70W to the coast of NW Cuba Mon morning before stalling and dissipating from 28N65W to Cuba Tue morning. High pressure behind the front will slide eastward along 31N. Yet another cold front will move off the southeastern U.S. coast and to the forecast waters Wed night into Thu, preceded by fresh to strong southerly winds. $$ Hagen