000 AXNT20 KNHC 251738 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 138 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 08N13W to 04N19W. The ITCZ continues from 04N19W to 01N34W to 03N50W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06S-06N between 14W-49W. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 25/1500 UTC, a cold front extends from SE Louisiana near 29.5N91W to 28N94W to south Texas near 27N97.5W to 27N100W. A pre-frontal trough at 1500 UTC extends from 29N85W to 26N90W to 25N98W to 26N103W. A thin line of cloudiness and possible isolated showers is present within 15 nm either side of the pre-frontal trough. The atmosphere is much more moist out ahead of the pre-frontal trough, over the SE Gulf of Mexico and South Florida. Energetic SW flow aloft is supporting scattered strong convection from 25N-27N between the west coast of Florida and 84.5W. Scattered showers extend southwestward from that area of convection to the NW Yucatan Peninsula. Drier air prevails north and west of the pre-frontal trough. The latest ASCAT pass shows fresh SE winds in the Yucatan Channel, decreasing to gentle, about 30 nm north of the Yucatan Channel. Outside of the convection, gentle winds prevail over the eastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere over the basin. Strong thunderstorms over the E Gulf of Mexico off the coast of southern and central Florida may produce gusty winds and locally higher seas today. The cold front over the NW Gulf will move across the northern Gulf through tonight, then reach from near Tampa Florida to the SW Gulf on Sun. This front will move SE and into the NW Caribbean on Mon as a high pressure ridge passes eastward across the Gulf early next week. Another cold front will move into the northern Gulf Wed night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Mid-to upper-level ridging is leading to dry conditions across most of the Caribbean basin with a few exceptions. Isolated to scattered light showers are seen over portions of the NE Caribbean, including near Puerto Rico. Scattered moderate convection is seen in the far SW Caribbean within 45 nm of the coast of western Panama and southern Costa Rica. The latest ASCAT pass shows fresh trades across most of the basin, except strong trades are seen in the south-central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. High pressure extending from the central Atlantic to the NW Bahamas will maintain fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean through Tue before weakening. Strong east to southeast winds will pulse at night over the Gulf of Honduras this weekend. Smoke from agricultural fires in Central America could reduce visibility over the Gulf of Honduras for the next several days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Over the western Atlantic, abundant moisture seen on TPW imagery along with energetic SW flow aloft is leading to scattered moderate rainshowers and isolated strong tstorms inside an area bounded by the points 29N81W to 32N74W to 32N63W to 23N80W to 29N81W. The latest ASCAT data suggests there is a surface trough in this area from 31N72W to 28N76W to 26N80W, which is helping to enhance the showers. Wind speeds of 10-15 kt generally prevail across this region, outside of the stronger showers and tstorms. Farther east, surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1030 mb high near 39N38W. The latest ASCAT pass shows fresh trades across the tropical Atlantic from 05N-20N, west of 40W. For the forecast west of 65W, a front just north of the area, off the Georgia and South Carolina coasts, will be responsible for fresh to strong south to southwest winds today north of 29N west of 77W. These winds will diminish tonight. Scattered tstorms, some possibly strong, well ahead of the front, may produce gusty winds and locally higher seas offshore of Florida through this evening. Another cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast Sun night and cross the offshore waters N of 22N Mon through Tue night. The front is expected to stall across the central Bahamas Wed as high pressure slides eastward along 31N. Yet another cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast Wed night into Thu preceded by fresh to strong southerly winds along with scattered showers and thunderstorms. $$ Hagen