000 AXNT20 KNHC 251031 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 07.5N13W to 04N22W. The ITCZ continues from 04N22W to 01N39W to the coast of Brazil near 01N50W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is moving off the Africa coast from 01.5N to 10N e of 16W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 10N to 06N between 17W and 50W. GULF OF MEXICO... The remnants of a dying A cold front extend from N Florida SW across the Big Bend region to near 27.5N87W. Energetic SW flow aloft is supporting scattered strong convection to the SE of this weak boundary within 60 nm of the coast of Ft Meyers Florida. Scattered moderate convection extends from this area SW to offshore of the NW Yucatan peninsula, along an old surface trough. Fresh southerly winds prevail through the Yucatan Channel and across the SE Gulf, with gentle to moderate winds prevailing elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-7 ft range over the eastern Gulf, and 2-5 ft over the western Gulf. A second cold front is moving SE across the NW Gulf and Texas coastal waters, is is expected to cross the northern Gulf today through tonight Sat, then reach from near Tampa, Florida to the SW Gulf on Sun. A high pressure ridge building in the wake of this front will pass eastward across the Gulf Sun night through Tue night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to strong E tradewinds prevail across the south central Caribbean, and veer SE to S across the western Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere. Very stable atmospheric conditions prevail across most of the basin, with only isolated showers embedded within the tradewind flow noted in satellite imagery seen across the Lesser Antilles. Seas are in the 8-10 ft range over the south central Caribbean, 6-8 ft over the western Caribbean, and 4-6 ft elsewhere. A high pressure ridge across the western Atlantic will maintain fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean through early Tue. Strong E to SE winds will pulse at night over the Gulf of Honduras through this weekend. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades will prevail across the region. Smoke from persistent agricultural fires over Central America could reduce visibility over the Gulf of Honduras and across the waters off the Yucatan peninsula during the next several days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front has off the moved SE coast of the United States, and extends from near Jacksonville, Florida to near 31N80W. Fresh SW winds prevail over the NW waters ahead of the front, where scattered moderate to strong convection prevails from the NW Bahamas NE to the Bermuda area. Moderate to fresh tradewinds prevail S of 20N, with isolated showers embedded within the tradewind flow. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere across the discussion waters. The cold front will stall near 31N and lift northward as a warm front today. Strong thunderstorms ahead of the front will produce gusty winds and locally higher seas offshore of Florida today as energetic SW upper level flow continues across the region. Another cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast Sat night, cross the northern waters Sun through Mon, then extend from near Bermuda to the north-central coast of Cuba by Mon night. Strong winds will pulse along the northern coast of Hispaniola tonight and Sat night. $$ Stripling