000 AXNT20 KNHC 250603 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 09N13W, to 06N17W and 04N22W. The ITCZ continues from 04N22W, to 01N32W, to 01N39W, and to 02N47W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 08N southward from 50W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... The GFE model for 250 mb, and water vapor satellite imagery, show SW wind flow across the Gulf of Mexico. A weakening cold front cuts across NE Florida near 30N83W, to 27N87W in the NE Gulf of Mexico. A weakening warm front is along 27N87W to 28N92W, and northward along the border of Texas and Louisiana. Precipitation: scattered to numerous moderate-to- strong is reaching the SW corner of Florida, from the Gulf of Mexico from 25N82W, across Florida, to 27N79W between Florida and Grand Bahama Island. Similar scattered to numerous moderate- to-strong is reaching the Florida west coast from 27N84W, across Florida, to 29N78W in the Atlantic Ocean. A surface trough curves along 27N88W to 22N92W, to the coast of Mexico along 98W at 22N/23N. This trough showed up in earlier scatterometer winds. No significant deep convective precipitation was apparent in satellite imagery. The current weakening frontal boundary, will continue to weaken during the overnight and early morning hours. Strong thunderstorms ahead of the front may produce gusty winds and locally higher seas in the NE Gulf of Mexico tonight. A reinforcing cold front will move into the NW Gulf of Mexico late tonight. The reinforcing cold front will cross the northern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday and Saturday night. The reinforcing cold front will extend from near Tampa Florida into the SW Gulf of Mexico on Sunday. This front will exit the basin by Monday, as a ridge passes eastward across the Gulf of Mexico early next week. It is possible that another cold front may move into the northern Gulf of Mexico late on Wednesday or Wednesday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... The GFE model for 250 mb, and water vapor satellite imagery, show that broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the Caribbean Sea. Comparatively drier air is apparent in water vapor imagery across most of the Caribbean Sea. Upper level moisture is in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea, to the southwest of the line that runs from NE Nicaragua to northern Colombia. Rainshowers are possible, in broken low level clouds, mostly from 70W eastward. 24-hour rainfall totals, ending at 25/0000 UTC are: 0.11 in Curacao, and 0.03 in Guadeloupe. A ridge, that is across the western Atlantic Ocean, will maintain fresh to strong trade winds, in the south central Caribbean Sea, through the middle of the next week. Strong E to SE winds will pulse at night, in the Gulf of Honduras, this weekend. Northerly swell will propagate through the Tropical N Atlantic Ocean this weekend. Smoke from agricultural fires in Central America may reduce the visibility in the Gulf of Honduras for the next several days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front is along the U.S.A. east coast. The stationary front leads into the NE Florida 30N83W cold front, that eventually enters the Gulf of Mexico. The southernmost part of an existing Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 32N76W to 31N77W. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated to widely scattered moderate and locally strong, are to the northwest of the line that passes through 32N58W, to 26N70W, to 24N80W. A cold front will move off the SE U.S.A. coast tonight. The frong will stall near 31N, and move northward as a warm front on Saturday. Fresh to strong S to SW winds in the far northern waters will diminish tonight. Strong thunderstorms ahead of the front may produce gusty winds and locally higher seas offshore of Florida into early Saturday. A second cold front will move off the SE U.S.A. coast on Saturday night. The second cold front will cross the offshore waters N of 22N from Sunday through Monday night. The second cold front is expected to stall along 24N/25N, from Tuesday through Wednesday, as high pressure tracks eastward roughly along 31N. $$ mt