000 AXNT20 KNHC 241702 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 102 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1640 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia near 07N11W to 04N16W. The ITCZ continues from 04N17W to 02S28W to the coast of Brazil near 02S44W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06S-07N across both the monsoon trough and ITCZ, between 11W to 44W. GULF OF MEXICO... At 1500 UTC, an upper level trough extends into the north-central Gulf of Mexico. At the surface, a cold front stretches from the Florida Panhandle near 30N85W to 27N91W. The front transitions to a warm front near 27N91W to the coast of Texas near 29N96W. An area of scattered moderate to strong thunderstorms is noted off the central Florida coast from 24N-29N between 82W-89W. Numerous showers are moving along the Florida coast N of 28N and E of 86W. In the Bay of Campeche, a 1009 mb low is centered near 22N92W with a trough extending along it from 26N88W to the coast of Mexico near 18N94W. Showers are noted along this trough. The latest scatterometer data and surface observations depict gentle to moderate NE winds behind the cold front with light to gentle southerly winds ahead of it. Gentle winds are beginning to veer to the SE along the warm front in the northwestern Gulf. Fresh winds are noted off the NE Yucatan coast. Seas are ranging between 3 to 7 ft. The cold front will stall across the NE Gulf tonight, then lift northward early Sat. Strong thunderstorms ahead of the front will produce gusty winds and locally higher seas over the eastern Gulf through tonight. A second cold front will move into the NW Gulf late tonight, cross the northern Gulf Sat and Sat night, then reach from near Tampa, Florida to the SW Gulf on Sun. A high pressure ridge building in the wake of this front will pass eastward across the Gulf Sun night through Tue night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Mid-level ridging spans the Caribbean Sea. Comparatively drier air is apparent in water vapor imagery across the entire Caribbean Sea. Scattered showers are noted on radar across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Showers are also moving across the Lesser Antilles. The latest scatterometer data and surface observations depict moderate to fresh trades across the basin. Fresh to strong winds are noted in the south-central Caribbean in addition to the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are ranging from 3 to 7 ft. A high pressure ridge across the western Atlantic will maintain fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean through Tue night. Strong E to SE winds will pulse at night over the Gulf of Honduras through this weekend. Elsewhere,moderate to fresh trades will prevail across the region. Smoke from agricultural fires over Central America could reduce visibility over the Gulf of Honduras for the next several days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A line of strong thunderstorms are moving across the western Atlantic from 26N-33N between 72W-79W. Frequent lightning and gusty winds can be expected with these storms. Meanwhile, farther east, a cold front extends into the central Atlantic from 31N49W to 25N61W. Isolated showers are along this front. Otherwise, surface ridging extends across the rest of the basin. The latest scatterometer data and surface observations depict fresh to strong ESE winds off the coast of Florida in the western Atlantic with seas reaching to 10 ft. A cold front will approach the SE U.S. coast through tonight, then stall near 31N and lift northward as a warm front on Sat. Strong S to SW winds will continue ahead of the front into this afternoon, then diminish by tonight. Strong thunderstorms ahead of the front will produce gusty winds and locally higher seas offshore of Florida through Sat. Another cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast Sat night, cross the northern waters Sun through Mon, then extend from near Bermuda to the north-central coast of Cuba by Mon night. Strong winds will pulse along the northern coast of Hispaniola tonight and Sat night. $$ A Reinhart