000 AXNT20 KNHC 241030 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 AM EDT Fri Apr 24 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Gale-force southerly winds have developed overnight across the western Atlantic waters, to the N of 29N between 75W AND 78W. Wave heights of 8 to 10 ft prevail across this area for the n, while scattered moderate to strong thunderstorms are also occurring across this gale area. Winds are expected to diminish below gale force by around 1200 UTC as the gale force winds shift NE of the area. Please read the MIAHSFAT2 forecast, at the website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 08N13W, to 06N16W and 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W, curving to 04N26W, to 02N29W, and to 01N38W. A surface trough is along 01S37W to the Equator along 45W. Scattered moderate to strong convection of noted from 01N to 04N between 03W and 07W, from 02N to 08N between 10W and 15W, from 02N to 05N between 42W and 46W, and from 01N to 03N between 47W and 50W. Widely scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 06N southward between 15W and 24W. Isolated moderate convection is elsewhere from 09N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... Deep layered troughing extends from the Tennessee Valley SW to southern Texas, yielding SW upper level flow across the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. The upper trough supports a cold front from the far western Florida Panhandle to extreme NE Mexico. This upper level SW flow was sustaining a cluster of deep convection along and ahead of the front, across the NE Gulf from 26N to 30N between 84W and 88W. The front will continue to weaken as it moves to the Florida Big Bend region today and gradually dissipates tonight into Sat. A surface trough is inland, from northern Guatemala, through the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, northwestward beyond 22N100W. A second cold front will move into the NW Gulf Fri night, then eventually extend from S Florida to the SW Gulf Sun. High pressure, following in the wake of the second cold front, will shift from the southern plains of the U.S.A. on Sunday night to the western Atlantic Ocean on Wednesday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Satellite imagery shows broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the Caribbean Sea. Comparatively drier air is apparent in water vapor imagery across the entire Caribbean Sea. Rainshowers are suggested in satellite imagery, in broken low level clouds, from 16N southward from 70W eastward, and from 18N southward from 74W westward. A ridge across the western Atlantic Ocean will maintain fresh to strong trade winds in the S central Caribbean Sea through Tuesday night. Strong E to SE winds will pulse at night in the Gulf of Honduras through Sunday night. Moderate to fresh trade winds are expected elsewhere through Saturday. Smoke, from agricultural fires in Central America, may reduce the visibility in the Gulf of Honduras, for the next several days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak cold front bisects the central Atlantic ridge, passing through 32N49W to 26N55W, with the tail end of this front dissipating S of 28N. A surface trough continues from 25N60W to 22N64W, and curving to NE Puerto Rico. Scattered light to moderate convection is suggested by satellite imagery from 20N northward between 50W and 70W, and from 17N in the Caribbean Sea to 23N in the Atlantic Ocean between 60W and 70W. An upper level trough is along the coast of Morocco and the Western Sahara. Scattered convection is possible from 24N northward from 20W eastward. A cold front will move off the SE U.S.A. coast today and shift eastward through Saturday morning. Strong to gale-force S to SW winds will prevail across the waters in advance of this front N of the Bahamas, through late this morning before slowly diminishing this afternoon through tonight. Another cold front will move off the coast of northern Florida on Saturday night, and then extend from near Bermuda to S Florida on Sunday. Strong winds will pulse along the N coast of Hispaniola each evening and night through Saturday night. $$ Stripling