000 AXNT20 KNHC 231035 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 AM EDT Thu Apr 23 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea near 10N14W to 05N16W, to 04N26W. The ITCZ continues from 04N26W, to 04N31W, 01N35W, and to 01N43W. A surface trough is along 03N49W 01N47W, to 01S43W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is within 180 nm of the monsoon trough and the ITCZ, between 10W and 34W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... The GFE model for 250 mb, and water vapor satellite imagery, show SW to W wind flow across the Gulf of Mexico. A low pressure center, and accompanying frontal boundaries, are inland, from Arkansas across Oklahoma to Texas and Louisiana. Southerly wind flow is apparent in the Gulf of Mexico. The isobaric pattern is consistent with the Gulf of Mexico preparing to receive a frontal boundary in the area. A developing low pressure system in the U.S southern plains will induce fresh to strong southerly winds today. The low will drag a cold front across the northern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Friday. A second cold front will move into the NW Gulf Friday night, then extend from southern Florida to the SW Gulf Sunday. CARIBBEAN SEA... The GFE model for 250 mb shows that a ridge extends from a southern Yucatan Peninsula anticyclonic circulation center, to a anticyclonic circulation center near 15N70W, beyond Trinidad in the SE Caribbean Sea. Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire area. Comparativel drier air is apparent in water vapor imagery across the entire Caribbean Sea. Rain showers are possible, in broken low level clouds, to the east of the line that runs from 21N82W 17N82W 13N74W, and from 11N to 16N from 79W westward. Strong E to SE winds will pulse at night over the Gulf of Honduras through Saturday night. A ridge across the western Atlantic will maintain fresh to strong trade winds over the south central Caribbean through Sunday. Moderate to fresh trades are expected elsewhere through Saturday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A dying cold front passes through 32N55W to 22N70W, to eastern Cuba. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 250 nm east of the front from 28N northward. A second dying cold front is from 32N62W to near 27N80W at the coast of Florida. High level clouds cover the area that is from 24N northward from the first front northwestward. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent with the second front. The pair of weak cold fronts stretching across the central and western Atlantic will dissipate later today. A cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast Friday through Saturday morning. Strong to near gale force S to SW winds are expected ahead of this front north of the Bahamas through Friday. Another cold front will move off the coast of northern Florida Saturday night, then extend from near Bermuda to S Florida on Sunday. $$ mt/dm