000
AXNT20 KNHC 221048
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Wed Apr 22 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1030 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea 
near 10N14W to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W, to 
02N30W, 01N40W, toward the Equator along 50W, close to the coast 
of Brazil. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong from 05N 
southward, between 24W and 30W, and from 04N southward between 
32W and 39W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere 
from 07N southward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front passes through E Texas, into Louisiana. A 
cold front is moving through northern Florida, and the southern 
sections of Alabama and Mississippi.

A 1018 mb high pressure center is near 28N87W. 

A stationary front passes through the NW Bahamas, across the 
northern Florida Keys, into the central Gulf of Mexico. No 
significant deep convective precipitation is apparent in 
satellite imagery.

The current Atlantic Ocean-to-Florida Keys stationary front will 
drift southward and dissipate later today. A developing low 
pressure system in the U.S southern plains will strengthen 
southerly winds across the basin on through tonight. The low 
pressure center will drag a cold front across the northern Gulf 
of Mexico from Thursday through Friday. A second cold front will 
move into the NW Gulf of Mexico on Friday night. The second cold 
front will extend from southern Florida to the SW Gulf of Mexico 
on Sunday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The GFE model for 250 mb, and the current water vapor satellite 
imagery, show upper level anticyclonic wind flow, with a ridge, 
from 14N northward. An upper level trough passes across the 
central sections of the eastern Caribbean Sea islands, to the 
coast of Venezuela along 68W. Comparatively drier air is 
apparent in water vapor imagery across the entire Caribbean Sea.

E to SE winds will increase to the east of the Yucatan Peninsula 
tonight, with fresh winds expected continue through Friday. A 
cold front will be moving across the northern Gulf of Mexico. 
Fresh to strong trade winds will persist in the south central 
Caribbean Sea tonight through Sunday. Moderate to fresh trade 
winds are expected elsewhere from Thursday through Saturday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from a 1013 mb low pressure center 
that is near 37N54W, through 30N64W, across the NW Bahamas, and 
beyond the northern Florida Keys into the central Gulf of Mexico.

A weakening cold front extends from 32N31W, to 28N39W. 
Precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 26N northward 
between 23W and 41W.

The current Atlantic stationary front will drift SE today, then 
stall and dissipate through Thursday. Fresh to strong SW winds 
will precede the front this morning. A cold front will move 
eastward, north of 30N, from Friday through Saturday morning. 
Strong S to SW winds are expected in advance of this front, N of 
the Bahamas, on Thursday and Thursday night. A second cold front 
will move off the coast of northern Florida late on Saturday 
night. The second cold front will extend from Bermuda to 
southern Florida on Sunday.

$$
MT/DM