000 AXNT20 KNHC 220551 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EDT Wed Apr 22 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0510 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea near 10N14W to 05N19W. The ITCZ continues from 05N19W, to 02N30W, 01N40W, toward the Equator along 50W, close to the coast of Brazil. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong from 04N southward, between 23W and 27W, and from 04N southward between 32W and 37W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 07N southward. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front passes through NE Texas and E Texas, into SW Louisiana. A cold front is moving through the central sections of Georgia, and the southern sections of Alabama and Mississippi. A 1016 mb high pressure center is near 28N87W. A stationary front passes through the NW Bahamas, across the northern Florida Keys, into the central Gulf of Mexico. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery. The current Atlantic Ocean-to-Florida Keys stationary front will drift southward and dissipate overnight. A developing low pressure system in the southern U.S.A. plains will strengthen southerly winds across the basin on Wednesday and Wednesday night. The low pressure center will drag a cold front across the northern Gulf of Mexico from Thursday through Friday. A second cold front will move into the NW Gulf of Mexico on Friday night. The second cold front will extend from southern Florida to the SW Gulf of Mexico on Sunday. CARIBBEAN SEA... The GFE model for 250 mb, and the current water vapor satellite imagery, show upper level anticyclonic wind flow, with a ridge, from 14N northward. An upper level trough passes across the central sections of the eastern Caribbean Sea islands, to the coast of Venezuela along 68W. Comparatively drier air is apparent in water vapor imagery across the entire Caribbean Sea. The 24-hour rainfall totals, in inches, ending at 22/0000 UTC, is: 0.08 in Guadeloupe. E to SE winds will increase to the east of the Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday night, and those wind speeds will continue through Friday. A cold front will be moving across the northern Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to strong trade winds will persist in the south central Caribbean Sea from Wednesday night through Sunday. Moderate to fresh trade winds are expected elsewhere from Thursday through Saturday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from a 1012 mb low pressure center that is near 35N59W, through 30N66W, to 28N70W, to the NW Bahamas, and beyond the northern Florida Keys, into the central Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 240 nm to the SSE of the low pressure center and front, from 28N northward. The 24-hour rainfall total, in inches, ending at 22/0000 UTC, is: 0.39 in Bermuda. A cold front extends from a 1022 mb low pressure center that is near 32N31W, to 28N41W. A surface trough is along 35N24W to 30N27W. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 26N northward between 23W and 41W. The current Atlantic Ocean stationary front will drift SE on Wednesday, then stall and dissipate through Thursday. Fresh to strong SW winds will precede the front overnight. A cold front will move eastward, north of 30N, from Friday through Saturday morning. Strong S to SW winds are expected in advance of this front, N of the Bahamas, on Thursday and Thursday night. A second cold front will move off the coast of northern Florida late on Saturday night. The second cold front will extend from Bermuda to southern Florida on Sunday. $$ mt