212 AXNT20 KNHC 212322 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2257 UTC Tue Apr 21 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends southwestward from the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 02N19W where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 00N35W to the coast of Brazil near 02S45W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 04N to 06N between 12W and 15W and from 00N to 05N between 44W and 48W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring from 00N to 03N between 23W and 35W. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 21/2100 UTC, a stationary front extends from the southern tip of Florida near 25N81W to the central Gulf of Mexico near 24N90W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front. A 1018 mb high is centered over S Mississippi near 31N90W. 5-15 kt E winds are occurring over the N Gulf. Dense smoke from agricultural fires covers the SW Gulf S of 24N. The front should begin moving east of the area tonight. The next cold front will approach the NW Gulf Thu morning. Fresh to strong SE to S winds are forecast to develop ahead of the front over the western half of the Gulf tonight and Wed. The front will reach from near Pensacola Florida to near 28N91W by Thu night, then pass to the E of the basin by Fri night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may accompany this front. Yet another cold front is expected to emerge off the Texas coast Fri night and push SE to reach from S Florida to the SW Gulf by Sun night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface ridge extends from near 25N60W to E Cuba. A 1011 mb low is centered over N Colombia near 10N75W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm of the low. Dense smoke from agricultural fires covers the Gulf of Honduras. Scatterometer data shows moderate to fresh trade winds across E and central Caribbean east of 78W. Mainly fresh E to SE trade winds are in the Gulf of Honduras and in the S-central Caribbean. Moderate winds prevail elsewhere. While most of the basin is dry due to strong subsidence typical of April, scattered showers are present over the NE Caribbean. The fresh trade winds over the S central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras will increase to strong speeds at night through Sat night as strong high pres builds north of the area. Otherwise, gentle to moderate trade winds will increase to moderate to fresh speeds beginning Thu and continue through Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... As of 21/2100 UTC, a cold front extends from the W Atlantic from 31N62W to 29N67W where it transitions to a stationary front. The stationary front continues to the S tip of Florida near 25N80W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is within 180 nm south of the front east of 70W. A 1024 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near 28N42W. Scatterometer data shows strong SW winds east of the front and north of 27N. Fresh NW to N winds are located west of the front to near 72W. The front will push southeastward over the SE Bahamas and E Cuba early Wed, then weaken as it moves east of the forecast waters Wed night. Fresh to strong SW winds will precede the front N of 29N tonight and Wed. Another cold front will just reach the far NW waters Fri, then retreat north Fri night. Strong to near gale force S to SW winds preceding this front are expected over the waters northwest of the Bahamas Thu and Thu night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany this front. Yet another cold front will enter the waters northwest of the Bahamas Sun. $$ Landsea/Formosa/McElroy