000 AXNT20 KNHC 211706 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 106 PM EDT Tue Apr 21 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends southwestward from the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 02N16W where scatterometer imagery indicates it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 01N30W to 00N40W to the coast of Brazil near 01S47W. Isolated moderate convection is within 180 nm of the monsoon trough and the ITCZ E of 32W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 01N-05S between 32W-41W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N-03S between 42W-53W. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 21/1500 UTC, a cold front extends from Miami Florida near 26N80W to the SE Gulf of Mexico near 24N89W. Scattered showers are within 45 nm of the front. A 1017 mb high is centered over S Mississippi near 32N91W. 5-15 kt easterly winds are over the N Gulf. Dense smoke is over the SW Gulf S of 24N. The forecast calls for the cold front to exit the area this evening. The next cold front is forecast to approach the NW Gulf late Wed night into Thu morning. Fresh to strong southerly winds are forecast to develop ahead of the front over the western half of the Gulf by tonight. The front will reach from the western Florida panhandle to near 26N92W by Thu night, then from Apalachee Bay to the central Gulf and stationary to eastern Mexico early Fri. This front is expected to shift east of the area Fri night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may precede this front. Yet another cold front is expected to emerge off the Texas coast to the NW Gulf late Fri night into early Sat. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface ridge extends from near 24N60W to E Cuba. A 1011 mb low is centered over N Colombia near 10N75W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the low. Dense smoke is over the Gulf of Honduras. Scatterometer data shows moderate to fresh trade winds across the eastern Caribbean east of 75W. Mainly fresh east to southeast trade winds are in the Gulf of Honduras and in the south-central Caribbean section. Moderate winds are elsewhere. Most of the basin is dry due to strong subsidence. The forecast calls for the fresh trade winds in the south- central Caribbean and in the Gulf of Honduras to increase to strong at night through Wed night, then change little through Sat as stronger high pressure builds north of the area. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trade winds will increase to moderate to fresh speeds beginning on Thu and continue through Sat. The fresh trade winds in the eastern Caribbean will change little through the end of the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... As of 21/1500 UTC, a cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N65W to Miami Florida near 26N80W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm S of the front E of 72W. A 1026 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near 27N38W. Ascat data shows strong southwest winds east of the front to about 65W and north of 27N. Fresh northwest to north winds are west of the front to near 78W. The forecast calls for the cold front to extend from 31N62W to the Central Bahamas to central Cuba tonight. The front will weaken as it moves east of the forecast waters Wed night. Another cold front is forecast to move over the northwest part of the offshore waters Thu night. Strong to possibly near gale force southerly winds will precede the front and are expected over the waters north of the Bahamas from Thu morning through Fri morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may accompany this front. High pressure will build in behind the front. $$ Formosa