000 AXNT20 KNHC 211100 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 700 AM EDT Tue Apr 21 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends southwestward from the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 05N16W and to 01N22W, where an overnight scatterometer pass indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 01N33W, to 00N38W and to 00N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 240 nm south of the ITCZ between 33W-41W. Scattered moderate convection is within 240 nm southeast of the trough between the coast of Liberia and 12W. Similar activity is north of the ITCZ within 60 nm of line from 03N32W to 04N38W and to 04N43W, and within 60 nm north of the trough between 20W-22W. A large area of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted well to the south of the monsoon trough from 07S to 02S and between 14W-22W. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 21/0900 UTC, a cold front extends from Naples, Florida to 24N89W. NWS mosaic radar imagery shows scattered showers along the front east of 84W. Moderate southwest winds are ahead of the front over the SE Gulf. The northern Gulf is under the influence of weak surface high pressure ridging as 1014 mb high is analyzed just southeast of Louisiana. The associated gradient is providing for gentle winds over the waters north of 27N and east of 93W. Gentle to moderate winds are west of 93W. Large areas of smoke, some in the dense category, are observed over the just about the entire south-central and SW Gulf sections. Surface visibility reduction is estimated at 4 nm in these sections of the Gulf. The forecast calls for the cold front to exit the area this afternoon. The next cold front is forecast to approach the NW Gulf late Wed night into Thu morning. Fresh to strong southerly winds are forecast to develop ahead of the front over the western half of the Gulf by tonight. The front will reach from the western Florida panhandle to near 26N92W by Thu night, then from Apalachee Bay to the central Gulf and stationary to eastern Mexico early Fri. This front is expected to shift east of the area Fri night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may precede this front. Yet another cold front is expected to emerge off the Texas coast and over NW Gulf late Fri night into early Sat. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface ridge extends from near 24N60W to Cuba. Overnight scatterometer data revealed moderate to fresh trade winds across the eastern Caribbean east of 75W. Mainly fresh east to southeast trade winds are in the Gulf of Honduras and in the south-central Caribbean section. Moderate winds are elsewhere. Aside from isolated showers over the Leeward Islands, most of the basin is dry due to strong subsidence from persistent deep-layer ridging. The forecast calls for the fresh trade winds in the south- central Caribbean and in the Gulf of Honduras to increase to strong speeds at night through Wed night, then change little through Sat as stronger high pressure builds north of the area. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trade winds will increase to moderate to fresh speeds beginning on Thu and continue through Sat. The fresh trade winds in the eastern Caribbean will change little through the end of the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... As of 21/0900 UTC, a cold front approaching Bermuda stretches southwestward to 32N66W, to West Palm Beach and to Naples, Florida. A vigorous mid-level trough is passing over the front near 70W. This feature is significantly contributing to the longevity of a rather impressive solid line, about 180 nm wide, of numerous strong thunderstorms containing frequent lightning. The line extends 300 nm to the east of front north of about 27N. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen within 180 nm east of the front from 24N to 27N. Overnight Ascat data shows strong southwest winds east of the front to about 65W and north of 27N. The Ascat pass shows fresh northwest to north winds west of the front to near 78W. A surface ridge extends from 25N60W to Cuba. It is maintaining rather tranquil conditions over the southeastern and central Bahamas. The forecast calls for the aforementioned cold front to reach from near 31N70W to the NW Bahamas and to South Florida around or shortly after daybreak this morning, then reach from near 32N68W to the Central Bahamas and to along the coast of Cuba this evening. The front will reach from near 28N65W to the SE Bahamas and to eastern Cuba early Wed, then weaken as it moves east of the forecast waters Wed night. Fresh to strong southwest winds will precede the front mainly north of 27N. Another cold front is forecast to move over the northwest part of the offshore waters Thu night. Strong to possibly near gale force southerly winds will precede the front and are expected over the waters north of the Bahamas from Thu morning through Fri morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may accompany this front. High pressure will build in behind the front. Farther east, a ridge extends from a 1025 mb high near 34N22W to 28N32W, then to a 1024 mb high near 27N42W and to 25N60W. A 1023 mb high center is north of the area at 33N47W. In between the 1023 and 1024 mb high centers, a dissipating cold front is analyzed from near 32N38W to 30N48W. Moderate to fresh southwest winds are within 120 nm southeast of this front, north of 30N and east of 38W. These winds are diminishing with time. A warm front extends from 32N28W northwestward to a triple point at 36N31W. Areas of rain along with embedded scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are observed north of 30N between 22W-30W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are north of 29N between 30W-34W. Patches of low-level clouds quickly moving westward in the trade wind flow are present from 07N to 23N and west of 25W. Isolated showers are possible with these clouds. $$ Aguirre