000 AXNT20 KNHC 200508 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 108 AM EDT Mon Apr 20 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0440 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...ATLANTIC GALE WARNING... A cold front will enter the waters east of northern Florida this afternoon, then cross the waters N of 22N through Wed evening. Fresh to strong southerly winds will precede this front north of 27N beginning early this morning and increase to gale force in deep convection north of 29N by mid to late morning today. The gale force winds are forecast to lift north of the area by this evening. Then winds in the vicinity of the front will diminish to fresh to strong speeds as the front shifts E. Seas of 9 to 12 ft can be expected in the gale force wind area north of 29N between 70W-80W late this morning into this evening. Please see the High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends SW from the coast of Sierra Leone on the coast of Africa near 07N12W to 01N22W. The ITCZ extends from 01N22W to 02N39W, then continues W of a surface trough from 02N44W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is near and within 150 nm north of the axes between 14W-33W. GULF OF MEXICO... An east-west oriented frontal boundary is located over the southern U.S. about 120 nm north of the northern Gulf Coast. Numerous strong convection with isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms is mostly just inland between southeastern Louisiana and the western Florida panhandle. However, scattered moderate showers and tstorms are over portions of the NE Gulf of Mexico, with some stronger storms over the waters near the Mississippi coast and east of New Orleans. Strong tstorms will affect the north-central to northeastern Gulf from west to east through the morning hours today. Elsewhere, a surface ridge extends from W Cuba to the central Gulf of Mexico. The latest ASCAT pass shows fresh to locally strong SW winds over the north- central Gulf, with fresh SE winds farther south near the Yucatan Peninsula. Gentle winds are over the western Gulf. A cold front will move over the NW Gulf early this morning, and reach from near Apalachicola Florida to near 26N90W by later this morning. Fresh to strong southerly winds ahead of the front will continue through this evening as the front moves across the area. Scattered thunderstorms are possible ahead of the front over the north-central and NE Gulf, especially this morning into early afternoon. The next cold front is forecast to approach the NW Gulf Wed night into Thu morning. Fresh to strong winds are forecast to develop ahead of the front over the western half of the Gulf by Tue night. The front will reach from near Cross City, Florida to 28N90W by Fri morning. Smoke from agricultural fires in southern Mexico could reduce visibility in the SW Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... Deep layer ridging and strong subsidence will maintain dry and stable weather conditions across the basin. However, there are two areas of showers currently. Scattered showers are seen near the Leeward Islands and portions of the eastern Caribbean. Isolated showers are over portions of the NW Caribbean between the north coast of central Honduras and the south coast of east-central Cuba. The latest ASCAT data shows fresh trades in the central Caribbean, locally strong near the coast of Colombia. Fresh wind speeds also extend from the Yucatan Channel to the coast of Honduras, with strong E winds within 60 nm of the north coast of Honduras. Moderate trades are present elsewhere. High pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras through Fri night. Mainly moderate to fresh winds are expected elsewhere during the entire period. Otherwise, smoke from agricultural fires in Central America could reduce visibility near the Yucatan Peninsula and offshore of Belize and Honduras. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A warm front extends southeastward from a 1007 mb low near Wilmington North Carolina to 27.5N72W. A stationary front extends from the low to Savannah Georgia. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is seen north of 30N between 71W-79W. Scattered moderate convection is from 27N-30N between 76W-79W. The convection is being enhanced by upper- level diffluence. The latest ASCAT pass shows fresh S winds north of 29.5N between 72W-77W. Strong S winds are seen north of 30.5N in the same area. A cold front extends from 32N51W to 28N60W to 27N68W to 27.5N72W. No significant convection or wind is near this cold front between 56W-72W. East of 56W and north of 28N, fresh SW winds are present east of the front. Farther east, another cold front with no significant convection or wind extends from 32N22W to 30N31W, then stationary to 29.5N35W. A 1028 mb high near 36N33W and a 1020 mb high near 32N67W are maintaining gentle to moderate winds over much of the Atlantic from 15N-28N between 35W and the Bahamas. For the forecast west of 65W, the cold front extending from 27N65W to 27.5N72W will move east of 65W early this morning. A second cold front will enter the waters east of northern Florida this afternoon, and a Gale Warning is in effect north of 29N between 70W-80W. See Special Features section above for details. Another cold front will move across the SE U.S. on Thu with strong to possibly near gale force southerly winds developing ahead of the front over the waters east of northern Florida. $$ Hagen