000 AXNT20 KNHC 192255 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 655 PM EDT Sun Apr 19 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2240 UTC. ...ATLANTIC GALE WARNING... A cold front curves SW from 32N55W to 29N70W to 30N76W, then continues as a stationary front to 1012 mb low pres near Savannah, Georgia. Cloudiness and scattered showers are found along and up to 300 nm SE of this boundary. Moderate to fresh winds are to the lee of this front over the waters N of the Bahamas. A second cold front will enter the NW waters by Mon afternoon, then cross the waters NE of the Bahamas through Wed. Fresh to strong SW winds will precede this front N of 27N starting tonight. The winds ahead of the front will increase to gale force in deep convection Mon morning through Mon evening. Then winds in the vicinity of the front will diminish to fresh to strong speeds as the front shifts E across the NE forecast waters Tue. Yet another cold front will exit the SE U.S. Thu and Fri. Strong S to SW winds will precede the front over the NW forecast waters. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends SSW from the border of Liberia and Sierra Leone on the coast of Africa near 07N11W to 04N15W to 01N21W. The ITCZ continues in segments from 01N21W to 00N30W to 02N37W and from 03N42W to 01N50W. A second ITCZ is noted from 04S21W to 05S35W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is found from 03S to 03N between 11W and 50W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front running from near Savannah, Georgia to near Dallas Texas is focusing deep convection over the Gulf States. The southern limit of convection spans between Houston Texas and Albany Georgia and lies about 60 nm N of the northern Gulf coast. Otherwise, a ridge extending W across the central Gulf is maintaining fair weather over the basin. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are over the NW Gulf. A cold front currently over W Texas will enter the NW Gulf late tonight, then extend from the Florida Big Bend to near 26N90W by Mon morning. Fresh to strong S winds will precede the front through Mon evening as the front pushes into the eastern Gulf. Scattered thunderstorms are possible ahead of the front. The next cold front is forecast to approach the NW basin Wed night into Thu morning. Fresh to strong winds are forecast to develop ahead of the front over the western half of the Gulf by Tue night. The front will extend from N of Tampa Bay to 28N90W by Fri morning. Otherwise, smoke from agricultural fires in southern Mexico could reduce visibility over the SW Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... Deep layer ridging and strong subsidence will maintain dry and stable weather conditions across the basin, with little to no significant shower activity present. ASCAT data shows fresh trades in the central Caribbean, with strong trades near the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong trade winds are over the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate trade winds are elsewhere across the basin. High pressure N of the area will maintain fresh to strong winds over the south-central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras through Fri night. Mainly moderate to fresh winds are expected elsewhere during the entire period. Otherwise, smoke from agricultural fires in Central America could reduce visibility near the Yucatan Peninsula and offshore of Belize and Honduras. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary boundary extending from 32N23W to 29N34W is producing little in the way of sensible weather. Otherwise, high pres measuring 1026 mb centered near 34N35W is maintaining light to moderate winds over the tropical Atlc between 35W and the Windward Islands. $$ CAM