000 AXNT20 KNHC 191756 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Africa from Sierra Leone near 07N12W south-southwestward to 00N21W, where scatterometer data suggested the ITCZ begins and continues to 00N49W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 200 nm north and south of the ITCZ between 27W-49W. A second ITCZ is noted from 03S21W to 05N34W. Scattered showers are seen along the boundary. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is also noted along the monsoon trough from 00N-05N between 10W-25W. GULF OF MEXICO... A subtle weak upper-level shortwave trough, that is quickly moving eastward in a fast upper-level wind environment, is evident over southern Louisiana. With the stationary front lingering north of the area is being the focus for scattered shower and thunderstorm activity, the shortwave trough is providing additional atmospheric instability further enhancing this activity that is along and inland the coast from 27N to 30N between 86W to 93W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are over the NW Gulf. ASCAT data indicates moderate to fresh southeast winds across the northern Gulf while light and gentle winds prevail to the south. Isolated showers are also present over the Yucatan Peninsula with some debris clouds streaming northeast into the Yucatan Channel and NW Cuba. Elsewhere, no shower activity is observed. A cold front is expected to reach the NW Gulf this evening, and extend from the Florida Big Bend to near 26N90W by Mon morning. Fresh to strong southerly winds ahead of the front will continue through Mon evening as the front moves across the area. Scattered thunderstorms, some could be strong to severe, are possible ahead of this front. The next cold front is forecast to approach the NW basin Wed night into Thu morning. Fresh to strong winds are forecast to develop ahead of the front over the western half of the Gulf by Tue night. Otherwise, smoke from agricultural fires in southern Mexico and Honduras could reduce visibility, mainly in the SW Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... An E to W mid to upper-level ridge axis is over the Caribbean along roughly along 17N. Strong subsidence from this ridge is maintaining dry and stable weather conditions across the basin, with little to no significant shower activity present. Only isolated showers moving quickly westward over the northeastern and north-central Caribbean waters are seen. ASCAT data shows fresh trades in the central Caribbean, with strong trades near the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong trade winds are over the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate trade winds are elsewhere across the basin. High pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras through Thu. mainly moderate to fresh winds are expected elsewhere during the entire period. Otherwise, smoke from agricultural fires in Central America could reduce visibility near the Yucatan Peninsula and offshore of Belize and Honduras. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front, associated to a rapidly intensifying storm system well north of the area, extends southwestward from 30N59W to 29N75W. A jet-stream core with strong winds rounds the base of a rather vigorous deep-layer trough, that is just north of the area over the cold front. A large area of scattered moderate convection is quickly advancing eastward well ahead of the front over the waters north of 27N66W to 31N58W. ASCAT highlighted an area of fresh to strong southerly winds ahead of the front, north of 26N and between 48W-62W. The cold front extending from 31N60W to 29N76W will sweep southeastward to east of the area early this afternoon. Moderate to fresh winds are behind this front over the waters N of the Bahamas. A second cold front will move across the northwest waters by Mon afternoon and across the waters northeast of the Bahamas through Wed. Fresh to strong southerly winds will precede this front N of 27N starting tonight, increasing to near gale force Mon morning through Mon evening. These winds will diminish back to fresh to strong speeds as they shift eastward across the northeast forecast waters Tue. Another cold front will move across the SE U.S. on Thu with strong S winds developing over the NW forecast waters ahead of it. $$ MTorres