000 AXNT20 KNHC 191027 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 627 AM EDT Sun Apr 19 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Africa between Guinea and Sierra Leone near 09N13W south-southwestward to 02N20W and to 00N27W, where overnight scatterometer data suggested the ITCZ begins and continues to 00N40W and to the coast of Brazil near 01S48W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 180 nm north of the ITCZ between 28W-35W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm north of the ITCZ between 35W-40W, within 120 nm north of the trough between 23W-26W and north of the ITCZ within 90 nm of a line from 03N40W to 04N44W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of the trough between 16W-19W. GULF OF MEXICO... A warm front has moved inland the coast along a position from southwestern Georgia to southern Louisiana, to eastern and central Texas. A rather subtle weak upper-level shortwave trough, that is quickly moving eastward in a fast upper-level wind environment, is evident over southern Louisiana. With the warm front already being the focus for scattered shower and thunderstorm activity, the shortwave trough is providing additional atmospheric instability further enhancing this activity that is along and inland the coast from near Apalachee Bay to near Lake Charles, Louisiana. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are over the NW Gulf. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are elsewhere over the far NE Gulf. A stronger upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to track eastward across the Gulf states today and tonight. This is likely to help produce additional scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Gulf states and adjacent waters, with some of the activity having the potential to be to strong to severe. Stay tuned to the latest updates from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC). A weak ridge noses westward from the Atlantic across South Florida and SE gulf. Overnight Ascat data indicates mainly gentle to east to southeast wind speeds across the area, except for north of the Yucatan Peninsula, where fresh winds related to the Yucatan Peninsula trough, are present. The forecast calls for the warm front to continue to lift north and farther inland today. A cold front is expected to reach the NW Gulf this evening, and extend from the Florida Big Bend to near 25N90W by Mon afternoon. The ridge extending from the Atlantic to the SE Gulf will shift east of the area by this evening. Fresh to strong southerly winds are expected ahead of the front beginning early this morning and continuing through Mon evening as the front moves across the area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, as stated above, are expected to precede this front. Otherwise, smoke from agricultural fires in southern Mexico and Honduras could reduce visibility, mainly in the SW Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... An E to W mid to upper-level ridge axis is over the Caribbean along roughly along 19N. Strong subsidence from this ridge is maintaining dry and stable weather conditions across the basin, with little to no significant shower activity present. Only isolated small showers moving quickly westward over the northeastern and north-central Caribbean waters are seen. Overnight Ascat data shows fresh trades in the central Caribbean, with strong trades near the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong trade winds are over the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate trade winds are elsewhere across the basin. The forecast calls for the gradient associated to high pressure north of the area allowing for fresh to strong trade winds in the south- central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras through Thu. Mainly moderate to fresh trade winds are expected elsewhere. Otherwise, smoke from agricultural fires in Central America could reduce visibility near the Yucatan Peninsula and offshore of Belize and Honduras. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front, associated to a rapidly intensifying storm system well north of the area, extends southwestward to Bermuda, then to 30N70W and to 32N78W, where it transitions to a warm front that continues to a 1014 mb low located at 32N79W. A stationary front extends from the low to inland southern Georgia. A jet- stream core with strong winds rounds the base of a rather vigorous deep-layer trough, that is just north of the area over the cold front. A large area of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is quickly advancing eastward well ahead of the front over the waters north of 29N and between 51W-63W. Scattered showers are over the northwest part of the area north of 28N and west of 76W. An overnight Ascat highlighted an area of fresh to strong southerly winds ahead of the front, north of 29N and between 59W-69W. For the forecast west of 65W, the aforementioned cold front is forecast to sweep southeastward to east of 65W by early this evening. Fresh to strong winds ahead of the front will shift east of 65W today. Another cold front will move across the waters off NE Florida late tonight and early Mon, then move northeast of the Bahamas through Tue. Fresh to strong southwest winds will precede this front, increasing to near gale early Mon and through Mon afternoon. These winds will diminish back to fresh to strong speeds as they shift eastward Tue, and to the east of 65W Wed. A weaker cold front will move across the waters east of NE Florida Tue through Wed. High pressure behind this front will quickly slide eastward through Thu as yet another cold front moves across the southeastern U.S. Strong southerly winds will develop over the waters ahead of this front on Thu. Farther east, a surface trough is analyzed from near 23N56W to 15N98W. Patches of low-level moisture in the form of broken low clouds with possible isolated showers are quickly move westward within 180 nm east of the trough and also within 60 nm west of the trough. The tail-end of a cold front enters the area near 32N33W and extends to near 29N42W. Broken low clouds, with isolated showers are along and just ahead of this front. This front is forecast to weaken and become stationary today, with its western segment then lifting back to the north as war front tonight. In the far eastern Atlantic, a surface trough moving to the southwest is analyzed from near 27N29W to near 22N23W. This trough is moving through a dry and stable environment with no significant weather tied to it. $$ Aguirre