000 AXNT20 KNHC 190434 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1234 AM EDT Sun Apr 19 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0420 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near 09N13W to 02N20W to 00N27W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 01S-06N between 22W-45W, and from 00N-07N between 08W- 15W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from Pensacola Florida to Houma Louisiana. A warm front extends from Houma to Corpus Christi Texas. Scattered moderate convection is along the north-central Gulf Coast between Mobile Alabama and Houma Louisiana. Scattered moderate convection is also seen near NE Mexico and Brownsville Texas. Isolated moderate convection is present elsewhere near the front. The latest ASCAT pass shows mainly gentle to moderate wind speeds across the Gulf of Mexico, except for north of the Yucatan Peninsula, where fresh winds are seen. The warm front extending from southeastern Louisiana to southern Texas will lift north of the area this morning. A cold front is expected to reach the NW Gulf this evening, and extend from the Florida Big Bend to near 25N90W by Mon afternoon. Fresh to strong southerly winds are expected ahead of the front beginning early this morning and continuing through Mon evening as the front moves across the area. Scattered strong thunderstorms are possible ahead of this front. Otherwise, smoke from agricultural fires in southern Mexico and Honduras could reduce visibility, mainly in the SW Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... An E-W mid- to upper-level ridge axis covers the Caribbean along roughly 19N, keeping dry air over the basin with little to no significant shower activity. The latest ASCAT pass shows fresh trades in the central Caribbean, with strong trades near the coast of Colombia. Fresh trades are also seen in the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere over the basin. High pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras through Thu. Mainly moderate to fresh winds are expected elsewhere. Otherwise, smoke from agricultural fires in Central America could reduce visibility near the Yucatan Peninsula and offshore of Belize and Honduras. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A rapidly deepening 992 mb storm force low well north of the area near 40N65W extends a cold front from the low to 33N70W to 31N74W to the coast of Georgia. Well ahead of the cold front, scattered moderate convection is seen north of 28N between 58W-70W. The latest ASCAT pass shows strong S-SW winds ahead of the front, north of 30N between 59W-73W. For the forecast west of 65W, the cold front is forecast to sweep southeastward to east of 65W by early this evening. Fresh to strong winds ahead of the front will shift east of 65W today. Another cold front will move across the waters off NE Florida late tonight and early Mon, then move northeast of the Bahamas through Tue. Fresh to strong southwest winds will precede this front, increasing to near gale early Mon and through Mon afternoon. These winds will diminish back to fresh to strong speeds as they shift eastward Tue, and to the east of 65W Wed. A weaker cold front will move across the waters east of NE Florida Tue through Wed. High pressure behind this front will quickly slide eastward through Thu as yet another cold front moves across the southeastern U.S. Strong southerly winds will develop over the waters ahead of this front on Thu. Farther east, a surface trough from 23N55W to 16N58W is producing scattered showers near its axis. A cold front enters the area near 32N35W and extends to 29N42W, with isolated showers near the front. $$ Hagen