000 AXNT20 KNHC 180543 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EDT Sat Apr 18 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0510 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia near 07N11W, to 04N14W, to 04N24W, and to 03N26W. The ITCZ continues from 03N26W to the Equator along 35W, to the Equator along 39W, to 01S42W and 01S45W. Precipitation: Numerous strong from 05N to 09N between 10W and 13W in Sierra Leone and Liberia. Scattered strong is within 150 nm to the north of the monsoon trough between 13W and 18W, and within 200 nm to the south of the monsoon trough between 11W and 18W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is from 08N southward between 30W and 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... The GFE model for 250 mb, and the current water vapor satellite imagery, show an anticyclonic circulation center near 14N94W, in the eastern Pacific Ocean, about 150 nm to the ESE of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Broad upper level westerly wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. A cold front is moving through Texas, from the eastern sections, into south central Texas. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong is within 120 nm of the U.S.A. Gulf coast states between 89W and 94W, from Mississippi to Louisiana to Texas. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and other possible rainshowers, cover the Gulf of Mexico from 25N northward. A ridge will dominate most of the Gulf waters this weekend. A cold front will reach the northern Gulf of Mexico early on Saturday. The cold front will weaken, and move northward on Saturday night. A second cold front is expected to reach the Texas coast on Sunday night. It is possible that smoke from agricultural fires in southern Mexico and Honduras may reduce the visibility, mainly in the SW Gulf of Mexico. CARIBBEAN SEA... The GFE model for 250 mb, and the current water vapor satellite imagery, show an anticyclonic circulation center near 14N94W, in the eastern Pacific Ocean, about 150 nm to the ESE of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans nearly all of the Caribbean Sea. An upper level trough extends from the island of Dominica in the eastern Caribbean Sea islands, to a cyclonic circulation center that is in Gulf of Venezuela. Comparatively drier air is apparent in water vapor imagery across the entire Caribbean Sea. 24-hour rainfall totals, in inches, ending at 18/0000 UTC, are: 0.01 in Guadeloupe. Precipitation: Rainshowers are possible in areas of broken low level clouds, to the east of the line that runs from the Yucatan Channel to 15N80W to 13N70W. High pressure to the north of the area will maintain fresh to strong winds near the coast of Colombia through Sunday. Fresh to strong winds also are expected in the Gulf of Honduras at night through Wednesday. It is possible that smoke from agricultural fires in Central America may reduce the visibility near the Yucatan Peninsula and offshore of Belize and Honduras. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 32N48W to 27N57W, to 25N62W and 25N72W. The front becomes stationary, and it continues from 25N72W, across the NW Bahamas, to the coast of Florida near 26N80W. A second cold front is about 270 nm to the NW of the 32N48W cold front, from 60W eastward. 24-hour rainfall totals, in inches, ending at 18/0000 UTC, are: 0.77 in Bermuda. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 150 nm to the north of the stationary front, from 76W westward to the coast of Florida, and inland in Florida. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 24N northward from 50W westward. Rainshowers are possible, in the remainder of the area, from 26N northward between 25W and 50W. A far eastern Atlantic Ocean surface trough extends from 35N11W, to 31N11W. Precipitation: isolated moderate from 23N northward from 30W eastward. A cold front will move across the northern waters on Saturday night and Sunday. The front will stall and weaken on Sunday night. Expect fresh to strong southerly winds ahead of this front. A second cold front will move into the northern waters on Monday night. $$ mt