000 AXNT20 KNHC 172339 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2041 UTC Fri Apr 17 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 06N10W to 03N19W. The ITCZ continues from 03N19W to 02N43W. A surface trough extends from 13N48W to 03N48W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N-06N and east of 30W. Another area of scattered moderate convection prevails near the ITCZ and surface trough south of 06N and west of 37W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends just north of the area across the SE United States. A diurnally driven surface trough has shifted off the west coast of the Yucatan peninsula. A surface trough extends from 24N98W to 21N96W. Gentle to moderate southeasterly winds prevail across the area. Seas are in the 4-5 ft range over the western Gulf, and 2-4 ft over the eastern Gulf. No significant convection is noted at this time. The ridge will dominate most of the Gulf waters through the weekend. A cold front will reach the northern Gulf early Sat, then weaken and lift northward Sat night ahead of another cold front that is expected to reach the Texas coast Sun night. Smoke from agricultural fires in southern Mexico and Honduras may reduce visibility in the southern Gulf west of 85W. CARIBBEAN SEA... An area of fresh to strong east winds is noted over the south central Caribbean, mainly north of Colombia. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 7-9 ft range over the south central Caribbean, and 4-6 ft over the remainder of the central Caribbean and eastern Caribbean. Seas in the 2-4 ft range prevail over the western Caribbean. No significant convection is noted, only quick- moving scattered showers within the moderate trades. High pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to strong winds near Colombia through Sun. Fresh to strong winds are also expected in the Gulf of Honduras at night through Tue. Smoke from agricultural fires in Central America may reduce visibility near the Yucatan Peninsula and offshore of Belize and Honduras. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N56W to 25N72W, then becomes stationary through 25N80W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the front, with highest concentration mainly north of 29N. To the east, a 1022 mb surface high is centered near 27N39W. A surface trough extends from 13N48W to 03N48W. Fresh to strong winds prevail N of the front, with seas in the 7-9 ft range. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere, with seas in the 4-7 ft range. The one exception is east of the surface trough where fresh to locally strong winds and seas of 7-8 ft prevail. The cold front will stall and weaken east of the Bahamas tonight. Fresh to strong NE winds north of the boundary will diminish through tonight. A second cold front will move across the northern waters Sat night and Sun, then stall and weaken Sun night. Expect fresh to strong southerly winds ahead of the front. The next cold front will move into the northern waters by Mon night. $$ AL/ERA