657 AXNT20 KNHC 171721 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 115 PM EDT Fri Apr 17 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 07N12W to 04N22W. The ITCZ continues from 04N22W to 01N42W. A surface trough extends from 11N44W to 03N45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N-05N and east of 30W. Another area of scattered moderate convection prevails near the ITCZ and surface trough south of 10N and west of 37W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends across the basin in the wake of a frontal boundary that has dissipated earlier this morning. A surface trough extends from 24N98W to 21N96W. Latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh southeasterly winds across the area. No significant convection is noted at this time. The ridge will dominate most of the Gulf waters through the weekend. A cold front will reach the northern Gulf early Sat, then weaken and lift northward Sat night ahead of another cold front that is expected to reach the Texas coast Sun night. Smoke from agricultural fires in southern Mexico and Honduras may reduce visibility in the southern Gulf west of 85W. CARIBBEAN SEA... Dry air aloft prevails across the basin, as noted in water vapor imagery. With this, no significant convection is noted, only quick-moving scattered showers within the moderate trades. An area of fresh to strong east winds is noted in scatterometer data over the south central Caribbean, mainly north of Colombia. High pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to strong winds near Colombia through Sun. Fresh to strong winds are also expected in the Gulf of Honduras at night through Tue. Smoke from agricultural fires in Central America may reduce visibility near the Yucatan Peninsula and offshore of Belize and Honduras. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N59W to 25N76W, then becomes stationary through 25N80W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the front, with highest concentration mainly north of 29N. To the east, a 1025 mb surface high is centered near 28N41W. A surface trough extends across the far east Atlantic from 31N14W to 25N24W. The cold front will stall and weaken east of the Bahamas later today. Fresh to strong NE winds north of the boundary will diminish through tonight. A second cold front will move across the northern waters Sat night and Sun, then stall and weaken Sun night. Expect fresh to strong southerly winds ahead of the front. The next cold front will move into the northern waters by Mon night. $$ ERA