000
AXNT20 KNHC 171005
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Fri Apr 17 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America 
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South 
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the 
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite 
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of 
Liberia near 06N10W, to 04N13W, and 03N20W. The ITCZ continues 
from 03N20W to 03N40W, to 05N50W. Precipitation: Scattered 
moderate to strong from 03N southward and from 26W eastward. 
Scattered moderate within 180 nm of ITCZ between 36W and 50W. 

GULF OF MEXICO...

The GFS model for 250 mb, and the current water vapor satellite 
imagery, show an anticyclonic circulation center on top of 
Belize. Upper level SW-to-W wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico.

A cold front passes from the Straits of Florida to the Yucatan 
Peninsula. Precipitation: Isolated showers are along the coast 
of Cuba between 82W and 84W. Rain showers are possible elsewhere 
from 27N southward from 93W eastward.

A surface ridge passes through the coastal sections of 
Mississippi and SE Louisiana, NE Mexico near the border with 
Texas, southwestward into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, 
to the coast of Mexico near 19N97W.

The cold front will stall then dissipate later today. A cold 
front will reach the northern Gulf early Sat, then weaken and 
lift northward Sat night ahead of another cold front that is 
expected to reach the Texas coast Sun night. Smoke from 
agricultural fires in southern Mexico and Honduras may reduce 
visibility in the southern Gulf west of 85W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The GFS model for 250 mb, and the current water vapor satellite 
imagery, show an anticyclonic circulation center on top of 
Belize. Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans nearly 
all of the Caribbean Sea. An upper level trough passes across 
the island of Guadeloupe in the eastern Caribbean Sea islands, 
to the coast of Venezuela along 68W. Comparatively drier air is 
apparent in water vapor imagery across the entire Caribbean Sea.

Precipitation: Rain showers are possible in areas of low level 
clouds to the east of a line from the Yucatan Channel to 13N70W.

High pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to strong 
winds near Colombia through Sat. Fresh to occasionally strong 
winds are also expected in the Gulf of Honduras at night through 
Tue. Smoke from agricultural fires in Central America may reduce 
visibility near the Yucatan Peninsula and offshore of Belize and 
Honduras. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N66W to the Straits of Florida, 
passing through the northern Bahamas. Precipitation: Isolated 
moderate to locally strong is within 180 nm on either side of 
the frontal boundary. 

A far eastern Atlantic Ocean surface trough extends from 30N12W 
to 24N21W to 23N28W. Precipitation: Isolated rain showers are 
possible from 20N northward from 30W eastward.

The cold front will stall and weaken east of the Bahamas later 
today. Fresh NE winds north of the boundary will diminish 
through tonight. A second cold front will move across the 
northern waters Sat night and Sun, then stall and weaken Sun 
night. Another cold front will move into the northern waters Mon 
night. 

$$
MT/DM