223 AXNT20 KNHC 170547 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EDT Fri Apr 17 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0450 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia near 06N10W, to 04N13W, and 03N19W. The ITCZ continues from 03N19W to 03N40W, to 05N45W, and 05N51W. Precipitation: Numerous strong from 04N southward from 03W eastward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is elsewhere from 03N southward from 12W eastward. Scattered moderate to strong within 120 nm to the north of the ITCZ between 20W and 23W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong elsewhere from 05N southward between 15W and 25W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 10N southward between 37W and 50W. GULF OF MEXICO... The GFE model for 250 mb, and the current water vapor satellite imagery, show an anticyclonic circulation center on top of Belize. Upper level SW-to-W wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. A stationary front passes through south Florida near 26N81W, curving to 24N87W, just off the NW coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, into the eastern half of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Precipitation: Isolated moderate is along the coast of Cuba between 82W and 84W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 27N southward from 93W eastward. A surface ridge passes through the coastal sections of Mississippi and SE Louisiana, NE Mexico near the border with Texas, southwestward into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, to the coast of Mexico near 19N97W. The current stationary front will dissipate by early Friday. A cold front will reach the northern Gulf of Mexico early on Saturday. The front will stall, and move northward on Saturday night. A second cold front will reach the Texas coast on Sunday night. Smoke from agricultural fires in southern Mexico and Honduras will continue to reduce the visibility, at times, in the southwest and south central Gulf of Mexico. CARIBBEAN SEA... The GFS model for 250 mb, and the current water vapor satellite imagery, show an anticyclonic circulation center on top of Belize. Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans nearly all of the Caribbean Sea. An upper level trough passes across the island of Guadeloupe in the eastern Caribbean Sea islands, to the coast of Venezuela along 68W. Comparatively drier air is apparent in water vapor imagery across the entire Caribbean Sea. 24-hour rainfall totals, in inches, ending at 17/0000 UTC, are: 0.36 in Guadeloupe. Precipitation: Rainshowers are possible in areas of broken low level clouds, to the east of the line that runs from the Yucatan Channel to 13N70W. High pressure to the north of the area will maintain pulses of fresh to strong winds near the coast of Colombia through Saturday. Fresh to strong winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras at night through Tuesday. Smoke from agricultural fires will continue to reduce the visibility near the Yucatan Peninsula and offshore of Belize and Honduras. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front passes through Bermuda, to the Abaco Islands and Grand Bahama Island, to south Florida near 26N81W. 24-hour rainfall totals, in inches, ending at 17/0000 UTC, are: 0.04 in Bermuda. Precipitation, elsewhere: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 180 nm on either side of the stationary front. A far eastern Atlantic Ocean surface trough extends from 32N10W, to 25N20W, 22N38W, and to 28N38W. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 20N northward from 30W eastward. The current stationary front will weaken to the east of the Bahamas on Friday. Fresh to strong northerly winds are expected behind the front overnight. Another cold front will move across northern waters on Saturday night and Sunday. The front will stall and weaken on Sunday night. A second cold front will move into the northern waters on Monday night. $$ MT