000 AXNT20 KNHC 162256 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 656 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2240 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N12W to 06N19W. The ITCZ continues from 06N19W to 03S43W. A surface trough extends from 02S48W to 09N48W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is found in the vicinity of these features from 02N to 05N between 12W and 22W and from 03S to 09N between 36W and 47W. GULF OF MEXICO... A nearly stationary front extends from near Ft Myers Florida to 22N91W to 18N93W. A surface trough reaches over the western Gulf from 19N95W to 24N98W. Cloudiness and patchy light rain are found along and N of this boundary to 27N. Fresh to strong NE winds and seas to 8 ft are evident N of the front. Winds were only light to gentle over portions of the Gulf S of the front. Winds and seas will diminish tonight as the front dissipates. A weak high pres ridge will hover over the northern Gulf Coast ahead of the next cold front, which will enter the northern Gulf Fri night and Sat. The front will stall and lift N Sat night ahead of yet another cold front approaching the Texas coast by late Sun. This front is expected to push farther S over the Gulf before stalling near 25N Mon. Smoke from agricultural fires in southern Mexico and Honduras will continue to reduce visibility at times over the southwest and south central Gulf during the next few days. CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak surface ridge extends from just S of Bermuda to the Gulf of Honduras. The ridge will generate fresh to strong NE to E winds mainly at night along the coast of Colombia and fresh to strong E to SE winds mainly at night along the coast of Honduras through Mon. Seas are anticipated to peak between 8 and 10 ft along the coast of Colombia when winds are strongest. Light and variable winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are noted over the NW Caribbean, between 17N and the coast of Cuba. Moderate E to SE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas prevail elsewhere. Weather over the basin remains fairly dry except for some patchy cloudiness and isolated showers E of 67W. Surface observations and satellite imagery indicated dense smoke from agricultural fires was still likely limiting visibility over the Gulf of Honduras. The smoke from the agricultural fires will continue to reduce visibility adjacent to the Yucatan Peninsula and offshore of Belize and Honduras. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A nearly stationary front crosses the western Atlc from a 1014 mb low centered near 31N71W to near Ft Lauderdale Florida. Cloudiness, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted up to 120 nm on either side of the front. The tight pressure gradient between the front and high pres over the eastern United States is supporting fresh to strong NE winds between the front and the coast of Florida. The cold front over the western Atlantic will quickly move east to extend from 32N42W to near 27N60W by Sat morning. Fresh to strong NE winds behind the front will veer to E to SE during this time frame as high pres N and W of the front weakens. Expect fresh to occasionally strong S winds north of 27N Sat and Sat night ahead of the next cold front. Another cold front should reach the area late Mon. Farther east, a weakening frontal boundary stretches from 32N12W to 25N20W to 23N32W. This feature only has cloudiness and isolated showers associated with it. Otherwise, a surface ridge extends all the way from 1027 mb high pressure centered over the central Atlc near 31N42W to the Straits of Florida. Moderate to fresh trade wind flow is noted over the tropical Atlantic south of the ridge, along with 5 to 7 ft seas. $$ CAM