000 AXNT20 KNHC 161720 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 110 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal section of Africa near 09N13W to 05N18W. The ITCZ continues from 05N18W to 03N41W. A surface trough extends from 08N47W to 01N48W. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the vicinity of the ITCZ and trough from 00N to 10N between 22W and 51W. Fresh to strong winds are noted in the vicinity of the trough. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from near Venice Florida to 27N82W to 25N86W to 19N92W. The front then becomes stationary, extending across southeast Mexico. The upper dynamics supporting this front are lifting out of the area, and it is weakening and slowing down. With this, only scattered showers are noted along the front. Moderate to fresh NE winds with seas to 8 ft are evident across the northern half of the basin. These winds and seas will diminish through the morning as the front weakens. The cold front will drift little and stall through late today, before dissipating over the southeast and south central Gulf tonight. The next cold front will enter the northern Gulf Fri night into Sat, then stall and lift northward Sat night ahead of yet another cold front approaching the Texas coast by late Sun. Smoke from agricultural fires in southern Mexico and Honduras will continue to reduce visibility at times over the southwest and south central Gulf through the next few days. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface ridge extends from the central Atlantic through central Cuba into the northwest Caribbean. This is supporting pulses of fresh to strong easterly winds off Colombia and Honduras, with seas to 9 ft. Light and variable wind and 2 to 4 ft seas are noted over the northwest Caribbean, north of 17N to the coast of Cuba. Moderate E to SE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas persist elsewhere. Regional radar shows scattered showers moving across the Leeward and northern Windward Islands in the trade wind flow, with isolated showers over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. The pattern remains fairly dry elsewhere across the basin. Analysis from this morning indicated dense smoke from agricultural fires was still likely impacting visibility over the Gulf of Honduras. High pressure north of the area will maintain pulses of fresh to strong winds near the coast of Colombia through Fri night. Expect fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras at night during the upcoming weekend. Smoke from inland agricultural fires will continue to reduce visibility off the Yucatan Peninsula and offshore of Belize and Honduras. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends across the western Atlantic from a 1014 mb low near 31N72W to 27N80W. The front continues west across the Gulf of Mexico. Scattered showers are noted along and north of the front. To the east, a broad surface ridge extends from 1027 mb high pressure centered near 32N44W to the Straits of Florida. The tight pressure gradient in the area is supporting fresh to strong northerly winds between the front and the coast of northeast Florida. Father east, another frontal system is analyzed as a cold front from 31N10W to 27N17W, then becomes stationary from that point to 24N34W. Moderate to fresh trade wind flow is noted over the tropical Atlantic south of the high pressure, with 5 to 7 ft seas. The cold front over the western Atlantic will reach from Bermuda to south Florida late today, then move east of the area Fri. Fresh to strong northerly winds are expected behind the front through tonight. A ridge will dominate the region in the wake of the front. Expect fresh to occasionally strong southerly winds north of 27N Sat and Sat night ahead of the next cold front. Another cold front should reach the area late on Mon. $$ ERA