222 AXNT20 KNHC 160547 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0520 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia near 06N10W, to 03N18W. The ITCZ continues from 03N18W to 03N36W, 04N39W, and 4N47W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from the ITCZ to 10N between 20W and 45W, and from 08N southward between 45W and 50W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front passes through the Atlantic Ocean near 32N73W, to 28N82W in interior sections of Florida. The front becomes stationary at 28N82W, and it continues into the central Gulf of Mexico, to the coast of Mexico along 96W from 18N to 19N, and then northwestward into interior sections of Mexico. Precipitation: Rainshowers are possible to the south of the line that runs from the Florida Big Bend to the coast of Mexico near 23N98W. A surface ridge passes through the border of Texas and Louisiana, southwestward into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, to the coast of Mexico near 20N97W. The current frontal boundary will drift little and stall through Thursday. The frontal boundary will dissipate in the southeast and south central Gulf of Mexico on Thursday night. The next cold front will enter the northern Gulf of Mexico from Friday night into Saturday. It will stall, and move northward on Saturday night, in advance of yet another cold front, that will be approaching the Texas coast by late Sunday. Smoke from agricultural fires in southern Mexico and Honduras will continue to reduce the visibility at times in the southwest and south central Gulf of Mexico. CARIBBEAN SEA... The GFE model for 250 mb, and the current water vapor satellite imagery, show an anticyclonic circulation center on top of Guatemala. Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans nearly all of the Caribbean Sea. An upper level trough passes across the areas of Dominica and Martinique, to the coast of Venezuela along 65W. Comparatively drier air is apparent in water vapor imagery across the entire Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: Rainshowers are possible in areas of broken low level clouds, to the east and northeast of the line that runs from 20N84W to the Peninsula de la Guajira of northern Colombia. High pressure to the north of the area will maintain pulses of fresh to strong winds near the coast of Colombia through Friday night. Expect fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras at night during the upcoming weekend. Smoke from inland agricultural fires will continue to reduce the visibility off the Yucatan Peninsula and offshore of Belize and Honduras. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through the Atlantic Ocean near 32N73W, to 28N82W in interior sections of Florida. The front becomes stationary at 28N82W, and it continues into the central Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is to the north of the line that runs from 25N80W to 25N70W beyond 30N60W. A cold front is in the eastern half of the Atlantic Ocean, passing through 32N15W, to 28N20W, 26N30W, and to 28N38W. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 25N northward from 50W eastward. The current western Atlantic Ocean cold front that is reaching Florida will reach from Bermuda to south Florida by late Thursday, and then move to the east of the area on Friday. Fresh to strong northerly winds are expected behind the front on Thursday and Thursday night. A ridge will dominate the region in the wake of the front. Expect fresh to occasionally strong southerly winds to the north of 27N on Saturday and Saturday night, in advance of the next cold front. Another cold front should reach the area late on Monday. $$ mt