000 AXNT20 KNHC 152243 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 642 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2215 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Africa near 06N11W to 04N17W. The ITCZ continues from 04N17W to 01N45W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 00N to 09N between 28W and 47W. GULF OF MEXICO... A slow moving cold front stretches from 29N83W to 20N94W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted along the front, with the highest concentration east of 87W. Some fresh to strong N to NE winds are occurring behind this front, especially in the central Gulf. Seas range between 6 and 18 ft in the area of strongest winds. A thermal trough is exiting the western coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, but thus far no convection has initiated in association with it. High pressure is building across the northern portion of the basin in the wake of the front. Moderate smoke from agricultural fires exists across much of the southwest and south central Gulf. The northerly flow may be improving visibility a little off the coast of Veracruz, but southerly flow off the Yucatan Peninsula is continuing to bring smoke into the south central Gulf. The cold front will weaken and stall over the SE Gulf Thu, then dissipate by Fri. Another cold front will enter the northern Gulf Fri night and early Sat, then stall and lift northward as a warm front Sat night ahead of yet another cold front approaching the Texas coast by late Sun. The smoke from agricultural fires in southern Mexico and Honduras will continue to reduce visibility at times over the southwest and south central Gulf through the next few days. CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure centered over the north central Atlantic with a ridge axis extending to the Greater Antilles is supporting fresh E winds off the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Honduras, and seas of 6 to 8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate trades prevail with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Smoke front agricultural fires over southern Mexico and northern parts of Central America is leading to moderate visibility restrictions across much of the western Caribbean. With high pressure dominating, dry conditions are occurring across the basin. The high pressure will remain centered over the north central Atlantic and will build south and strengthen into the weekend. This will lead to an overall increase in wind speeds, with nightly pulses of strong winds expected both off the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Honduras. Smoke from inland agricultural fires will continue to reduce visibility off the Yucatan Peninsula and offshore of Belize and Honduras. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1028 mb high pressure centered over the north central Atlantic near 34N47W has a ridge axis that extends to the Turks and Caicos Islands. A cold front is exiting the Georgia and South Carolina coast this evening. Ahead of it, fresh S winds are ongoing N of 27N and W of 70W. Seas in this area are estimated to be 5 to 7 ft. Another cold front stretches from the Canary Islands to 25N37W. Some moderate to fresh winds are located on both sides of this weakening cold front. Moderate to fresh trade winds are noted across the tropical Atlantic, with 5 to 7 ft seas. Northerly swell of 8 to 10 ft is moving W of the Canary Islands. A cold front moving off the SE U.S. coast will stretch from Bermuda to SE FL Thu, then weaken and move E to SE of Bermuda Fri and Sat. Strong N winds are expected behind the front Thu into Thu night. A surface ridge will dominate the area in the wake of the front. Expect fresh to strong southerly winds over the north waters on Sat ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the forecast waters by Sat night. The weakening cold front in the E Atlantic will dissipate Thu. $$ KONARIK