000 AXNT20 KNHC 151715 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 112 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Africa near 06N10W, to 04N17W. The ITCZ continues from 04N17W to 00N33W to 00N48W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 00N-10N between 32W-48W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from 30N84W to 25N90W. The front becomes stationary from 25N90W to 19N96W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted along the front, with the highest concentration east of 87W. Earlier scatterometer data depicted fresh to strong northerly winds over the western Gulf, west of the front. Seas are estimated to be 5 to 8 ft in this area. A thermal trough extends across the Bay of Campeche from 23N91W to 18N94W. No convection is related to this feature. High pressure is building across the northern portion of the basin, in the wake of the front. The latest analysis from this morning indicated moderate smoke from agricultural fires across much of the southwest and south central Gulf. The northerly flow may be improving visibility a little off the coast of Veracruz, but southerly flow off the Yucatan Peninsula is continuing to bring smoke into the south central Gulf. The front will begin to stall and weaken from southwestern Florida to 25N87W by late Thu, before dissipating through Fri. A weaker cold front will enter the northern Gulf Fri night and Sat, then stall and lift northward as a warm front Sat night ahead of yet another cold front approaching the Texas coast by late Sun. The smoke from agricultural fires in southern Mexico and Honduras will continue to reduce visibility at times over the southwest and south central Gulf through the next few days. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface ridge extending from the north central Atlantic to the eastern Gulf of Mexico is supporting fresh to strong winds off Colombia, as verified by earlier scatterometer data and a recent ship observation. Seas are estimated to be 6 to 8 ft in that area. Fresh to strong winds are likely along the Bay Islands in the Gulf of Honduras as well. Moderate trades are noted elsewhere, with 4 to 6 ft seas. Latest analysis indicated dense smoke from agricultural fires over southern Mexico and northern Central America was probably extending across much of the west Caribbean, mainly west of 85W. The easterly winds may be mitigating some of the impact from eastern Honduras to the Cayman Islands, but it is likely dense smoke is lingering in the Gulf of Honduras and northward along the coast of Belize and the Yucatan peninsula. A very dry pattern persists across the basin, regional radar shows only isolated showers over the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. High pressure north of the area will maintain pulses of fresh to strong winds near the coast of Colombia through Fri night. Expect fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras at night Fri through Sun. Smoke from inland agricultural fires will continue to reduce visibility off the Yucatan Peninsula and offshore of Belize and Honduras. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface ridge extends from 1027 mb high pressure centered over the north central Atlantic near 35N46N through the northern Bahamas. Moderate to fresh southerly wind are ongoing north of 27N and west of 70W, between the ridge and a cold front over the northern Gulf that is slowly approaching the area. Seas in this area are estimated to be 5 to 7 ft. Farther east, a weakening cold front reaches from 31N22W to 27N38W, then becomes stationary from that point to 23N47W. Moderate to fresh NE winds were evident on the west side of the front, but these winds will continue diminishing as the front dissipates. Moderate to fresh trade winds are noted across the tropical Atlantic, with 5 to 7 ft seas. Northerly swell of 8 to 10 ft is moving into the waters off northeast Africa, north of 28N. A cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast today, reach from 31N75W to Cape Canaveral, Florida late today, from Bermuda to the Upper Florida Keys by late Thu, then move east of the area Fri. Fresh to strong northerly winds are expected behind the front Thu and Thu night. A surface ridge will dominate the area in the wake of the front. Expect fresh to strong southerly winds over the north waters on Sat ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the forecast waters by Sat night. $$ ERA